{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5ee8ac7-4f7d-444c-92e3-8c5ffedb47b4", "symbol": "SKN", "name": "Skin Elements Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 91.503, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.007, "architecture_energy": 12.788, "architecture_maturity": 27.945, "architecture_confidence": 62.531, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.05, "rotation_up": 22.38, "upward_expansion": 37.76, "deceleration": 74.72, "rotation_down": 36.26, "downward_expansion": 38.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.005433, 0.005564, 0.005705, 0.005613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.0055, "trend_reference": 0.005417, "distance_from_trend": 0.015385, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.004315, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.27458, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.271792, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.375, "excess_performance": 0.311294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015385, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035032, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.27458, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053715, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.062718, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.369865, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.375, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.33833, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1123532, "relative_activity": 0.67552, "balance": 6.33833, "dry_up": 0.816609, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.188811, "annualized_volatility": 1.069347, "from_high_reference": -0.694444, "from_low_reference": 1.75 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.005417, "fair_value_reference": 0.004315, "structural_low": 0.003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.092492, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.1, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.10023, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.2, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.2011, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": 0.2, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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0.005733, 0.005927, 0.005733, 0.005525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.005, "volume": 150000, "typical_volume": 996466.8, "trend": 0.0053, "fair_value": 0.004395, "relative_strength": 6.591889, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.350158, "energy": 13.944467, "activity_lines": [ 0.005467, 0.005745, 0.005681, 0.005505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.007, "volume": 13605878, "typical_volume": 1641878.25, "trend": 0.005333, "fair_value": 0.004382, "relative_strength": 47.498026, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.596128, "energy": 21.307091, "activity_lines": [ 0.005933, 0.005945, 0.005814, 0.005615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.006, "volume": 1794062, "typical_volume": 1613222.3, "trend": 0.0054, "fair_value": 0.00437, "relative_strength": 25.045685, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.980296, "energy": 22.208883, "activity_lines": [ 0.006, 0.005945, 0.005843, 0.005658 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.005, "volume": 660823, "typical_volume": 1596657.05, "trend": 0.0054, "fair_value": 0.00435, "relative_strength": 3.676432, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.778372, "energy": 2.633582, "activity_lines": [ 0.005733, 0.005764, 0.005776, 0.005632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.005, "volume": 1854350, "typical_volume": 1637897.4, "trend": 0.0054, "fair_value": 0.004331, "relative_strength": 0.573501, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.058466, "energy": 3.590886, "activity_lines": [ 0.005467, 0.0056, 0.005714, 0.005606 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0055, "volume": 1123532, "typical_volume": 1663209.35, "trend": 0.005417, "fair_value": 0.004315, "relative_strength": 6.271792, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.006667, "energy": 12.787666, "activity_lines": [ 0.005433, 0.005564, 0.005705, 0.005613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }