{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5eebde4-1618-4876-8ae1-3dc86a250738", "symbol": "PID", "name": "INVESCO INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND ACHIEVERS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.009, "architecture_energy": 61.566, "architecture_maturity": 3.421, "architecture_confidence": 69.374, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.41, "rotation_up": 70.63, "upward_expansion": 88.67, "deceleration": 42.42, "rotation_down": 9.83, "downward_expansion": 13.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.030347, 22.836034, 22.714137, 22.668547 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.06, "trend_reference": 22.657422, "distance_from_trend": 0.017768, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.112261, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.206555, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.674819, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.006374, "excess_performance": -0.18108, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017768, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016147, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.206555, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003775, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086748, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039661, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006374, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.671757, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 269207, "relative_activity": 0.636033, "balance": 1.671757, "dry_up": 0.612527, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020942, "annualized_volatility": 0.116026, "from_high_reference": -0.0261, "from_low_reference": 0.133504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.657422, "fair_value_reference": 19.112261, "structural_low": 21.68, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.001322, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.015795, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.05637, "worst_return": -0.075719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.032129, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.044833, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.080166, "worst_return": -0.034906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.044839, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.113527, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.113927, "worst_return": -0.028263, 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"direction": 0.05648, "energy": 6.891192, "activity_lines": [ 22.492071, 22.532431, 22.515514, 22.546211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.94, "volume": 214714, "typical_volume": 437809.2, "trend": 22.543824, "fair_value": 18.981776, "relative_strength": -6.009975, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.757686, "energy": 27.357371, "activity_lines": [ 22.643439, 22.604998, 22.555633, 22.574509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.91, "volume": 280563, "typical_volume": 422972.0, "trend": 22.577555, "fair_value": 19.022025, "relative_strength": -4.453393, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.575737, "energy": 38.49798, "activity_lines": [ 22.77332, 22.663778, 22.595601, 22.598133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.2313, "volume": 272548, "typical_volume": 424275.6, "trend": 22.622325, "fair_value": 19.067736, "relative_strength": -3.508867, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.442565, "energy": 59.891019, "activity_lines": [ 22.957427, 22.769424, 22.665339, 22.64031 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.06, "volume": 269207, "typical_volume": 423259.75, "trend": 22.657422, "fair_value": 19.112261, "relative_strength": -8.674819, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.008561, "energy": 61.566022, "activity_lines": [ 23.030347, 22.836034, 22.714137, 22.668547 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }