{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5f4a410-37f9-42ef-b504-f33278d07ad3", "symbol": "SB5", "name": "UBS ETF SICAV - SBI Foreign AAA-BBB 1-5 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.765, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.736, "architecture_energy": 85.402, "architecture_maturity": 9.255, "architecture_confidence": 82.366, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.61, "rotation_up": 8.42, "upward_expansion": 19.66, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 81.27, "downward_expansion": 95.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.4556, 12.5064, 12.554952, 12.587013 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.42, "trend_reference": 12.617963, "distance_from_trend": -0.015689, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.137923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.023239, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.295929, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021774, "excess_performance": -0.192666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015689, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002343, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.023239, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029065, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152959, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039732, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021774, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.135203, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10227, "relative_activity": 0.343447, "balance": 0.135203, "dry_up": 0.418982, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005921, "annualized_volatility": 0.032968, "from_high_reference": -0.040334, "from_low_reference": 0.009501 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.617963, "fair_value_reference": 12.137923, "structural_low": 12.382, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.005358, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.013466, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.048423, "worst_return": -0.019836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016083, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.022938, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.04886, "worst_return": -0.009497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022467, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020169, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.067626, "worst_return": 0.006433, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.798575, "energy": 39.552295, "activity_lines": [ 12.588267, 12.603382, 12.61361, 12.627399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.554, "volume": 38058, "typical_volume": 32732.4, "trend": 12.619776, "fair_value": 12.11655, "relative_strength": -12.612534, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.016321, "energy": 30.25212, "activity_lines": [ 12.5792, 12.591673, 12.605305, 12.623473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.428, "volume": 759, "typical_volume": 30458.0, "trend": 12.618906, "fair_value": 12.123604, "relative_strength": -12.95296, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.561375, "energy": 72.285731, "activity_lines": [ 12.528667, 12.5588, 12.586343, 12.6111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.444, "volume": 861, "typical_volume": 29361.2, "trend": 12.618438, "fair_value": 12.130865, "relative_strength": -13.018336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.18074, "energy": 81.361174, "activity_lines": [ 12.4904, 12.5328, 12.570933, 12.599816 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.42, "volume": 10227, "typical_volume": 29777.55, "trend": 12.617963, "fair_value": 12.137923, "relative_strength": -15.295929, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.736364, "energy": 85.402356, "activity_lines": [ 12.4556, 12.5064, 12.554952, 12.587013 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }