{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5f8fe61-b10a-45fa-aeb0-8d6f871f30f3", "symbol": "ETL", "name": "Eutelsat Communications S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.124, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.347, "architecture_energy": 52.038, "architecture_maturity": 22.592, "architecture_confidence": 75.621, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.83, "rotation_up": 15.3, "upward_expansion": 24.88, "deceleration": 51.07, "rotation_down": 69.27, "downward_expansion": 54.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.047667, 2.195, 2.505181, 2.493843 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.936, "trend_reference": 2.4426, "distance_from_trend": -0.207402, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.884705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.328874, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.20933, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.082464, "excess_performance": -0.256711, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.207402, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020196, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.328874, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276633, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.402093, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.233816, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082464, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.349638, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10067, "relative_activity": 0.116543, "balance": 3.349638, "dry_up": 0.365637, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.228981, "annualized_volatility": 0.842047, "from_high_reference": -0.574225, "from_low_reference": 0.196539 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.4426, "fair_value_reference": 2.884705, "structural_low": 1.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.315312, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.387204, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022395, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039683, "active": true } ], 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"stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.534379, "energy": 34.411296, "activity_lines": [ 2.291467, 2.563727, 2.668843, 2.574058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.016, "volume": 48726, "typical_volume": 84366.9, "trend": 2.430033, "fair_value": 2.903004, "relative_strength": -37.645264, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.72642, "energy": 48.098895, "activity_lines": [ 2.191, 2.421218, 2.614671, 2.548047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.095, "volume": 30195, "typical_volume": 85876.65, "trend": 2.441133, "fair_value": 2.894587, "relative_strength": -34.280053, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.45482, "energy": 47.22183, "activity_lines": [ 2.142733, 2.307327, 2.567814, 2.526432 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.936, "volume": 10067, "typical_volume": 86380.0, "trend": 2.4426, "fair_value": 2.884705, "relative_strength": -40.20933, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.347148, "energy": 52.038253, "activity_lines": [ 2.047667, 2.195, 2.505181, 2.493843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }