{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5fbcbc9-e0cd-4689-aca9-cc1ab8133acb", "symbol": "002786", "name": "Shenzhen Silver Basis Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.641, "architecture_energy": 40.319, "architecture_maturity": 7.075, "architecture_confidence": 84.987, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.81, "rotation_up": 12.05, "upward_expansion": 6.09, "deceleration": 43.75, "rotation_down": 59.71, "downward_expansion": 79.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.464667, 7.625818, 7.81919, 7.845118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.68, "trend_reference": 7.987, "distance_from_trend": -0.038437, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.359231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.17942, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.95547, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.085714, "excess_performance": -0.093114, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038437, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045531, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.17942, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061102, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139555, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131237, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.085714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.224496, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36177228, "relative_activity": 0.615148, "balance": 1.224496, "dry_up": 0.903922, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104067, "annualized_volatility": 0.371697, "from_high_reference": -0.306859, "from_low_reference": 0.124451 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.987, "fair_value_reference": 9.359231, "structural_low": 6.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.005393, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": 0.007684, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.287425, "worst_return": -0.127485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.037398, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.058008, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.698315, "worst_return": -0.276053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.16031, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.123095, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.46875, "worst_return": -0.111758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 8.144667, "fair_value": 9.329551, "relative_strength": -22.444792, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.734054, "energy": 26.774411, "activity_lines": [ 7.850667, 8.084727, 7.963476, 8.010151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.69, "volume": 71569747, "typical_volume": 57235547.9, "trend": 8.109333, "fair_value": 9.3375, "relative_strength": -12.82693, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.013919, "energy": 25.94996, "activity_lines": [ 7.774, 7.990545, 7.94481, 7.980817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.0, "volume": 61716708, "typical_volume": 57575330.9, "trend": 8.056333, "fair_value": 9.342244, "relative_strength": -20.139798, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.081208, "energy": 45.386113, "activity_lines": [ 7.497333, 7.778364, 7.864571, 7.909247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.4, "volume": 43177198, "typical_volume": 58407290.8, "trend": 8.017667, "fair_value": 9.350128, "relative_strength": -13.51831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.338585, "energy": 48.45335, "activity_lines": [ 7.426667, 7.664545, 7.827476, 7.866903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.68, "volume": 36177228, "typical_volume": 58810602.35, "trend": 7.987, "fair_value": 9.359231, "relative_strength": -13.95547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.641205, "energy": 40.318799, "activity_lines": [ 7.464667, 7.625818, 7.81919, 7.845118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }