{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f60237e0-ef83-4cfb-8ff4-d5e8bb97777a", "symbol": "R2BL34", "name": "Roblox Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.723, "architecture_energy": 73.716, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.927, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.81, "rotation_up": 14.86, "upward_expansion": 19.94, "deceleration": 32.31, "rotation_down": 71.93, "downward_expansion": 86.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.348, 23.450727, 24.078524, 25.632817 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.030001, "trend_reference": 28.630667, "distance_from_trend": -0.335328, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.039551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.424024, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.860629, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.456906, "excess_performance": -0.399858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.335328, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224507, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.424024, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051073, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.578606, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088843, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.456906, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.930694, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41125, "relative_activity": 1.442922, "balance": 1.930694, "dry_up": 0.818799, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.179352, "annualized_volatility": 0.853237, "from_high_reference": -0.753114, "from_low_reference": 0.094937 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.630667, "fair_value_reference": 33.039551, "structural_low": 17.379999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.018535, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.017416, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.299543, "worst_return": -0.331342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.11114, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.092072, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.42908, "worst_return": -0.39696, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.557329, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.44194, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.713353, "worst_return": -0.471661, "sufficient": false 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"typical_volume": 31316.2, "trend": 31.673667, "fair_value": 32.934359, "relative_strength": -45.18318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.864214, "energy": 24.487611, "activity_lines": [ 27.274, 25.518545, 25.845333, 27.874344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.049999, "volume": 4633, "typical_volume": 30727.3, "trend": 30.875666, "fair_value": 32.978013, "relative_strength": -47.34391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.274225, "energy": 17.653917, "activity_lines": [ 27.209333, 25.842727, 25.729047, 27.511527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.17, "volume": 14262, "typical_volume": 29255.25, "trend": 30.146333, "fair_value": 33.013077, "relative_strength": -49.999691, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.00776, "energy": 19.357138, "activity_lines": [ 26.241333, 25.723636, 25.486762, 27.078903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.0, "volume": 33327, "typical_volume": 27622.35, "trend": 29.298, "fair_value": 33.011603, "relative_strength": -62.488431, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.262752, "energy": 43.68175, "activity_lines": [ 23.412, 24.437636, 24.702905, 26.295269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.030001, "volume": 41125, "typical_volume": 28501.2, "trend": 28.630667, "fair_value": 33.039551, "relative_strength": -57.860629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.72339, "energy": 73.715871, "activity_lines": [ 21.348, 23.450727, 24.078524, 25.632817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }