{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f60b1e25-a395-4e30-8a0e-e19063a8b2a9", "symbol": "GABI", "name": "GCP Asset Backed Income Fund Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 80.403, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.611, "architecture_energy": 15.341, "architecture_maturity": 17.106, "architecture_confidence": 57.166, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.88, "rotation_up": 20.48, "upward_expansion": 20.23, "deceleration": 52.7, "rotation_down": 37.46, "downward_expansion": 51.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.626443, 0.630319, 0.62646, 0.62698 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.6025, "trend_reference": 0.630658, "distance_from_trend": -0.044648, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.595896, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.011082, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.784237, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.07192, "excess_performance": -0.123156, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044648, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005916, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.011082, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041585, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117842, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048161, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07192, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.151232, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 483448, "relative_activity": 0.662989, "balance": 2.151232, "dry_up": 0.893422, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062796, "annualized_volatility": 0.185413, "from_high_reference": -0.172851, "from_low_reference": 0.042597 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.630658, "fair_value_reference": 0.595896, "structural_low": 0.594689, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.006471, "positive_rate": 0.32, "directional_follow_through": 0.32, "median_excess_return": -0.021712, "regime_survival": 0.64, "best_return": 0.096988, "worst_return": -0.123596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.002274, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.024342, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.170326, "worst_return": -0.149625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.016993, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.038447, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.330682, "worst_return": 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0.593756, "relative_strength": -6.99447, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.601173, "energy": 3.357082, "activity_lines": [ 0.631665, 0.633569, 0.626475, 0.628023 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.646, "volume": 909955, "typical_volume": 746553.15, "trend": 0.632309, "fair_value": 0.59502, "relative_strength": -5.430185, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.196177, "energy": 9.843826, "activity_lines": [ 0.637007, 0.636262, 0.62855, 0.628903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6025, "volume": 483448, "typical_volume": 729195.0, "trend": 0.630658, "fair_value": 0.595896, "relative_strength": -11.784237, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.610835, "energy": 15.340628, "activity_lines": [ 0.626443, 0.630319, 0.62646, 0.62698 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }