{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f60bb82c-35bc-4e48-90bb-4881f48f72d6", "symbol": "600375", "name": "Hanma Technology Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.39, "architecture_energy": 46.735, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 61.505, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.52, "rotation_up": 27.11, "upward_expansion": 19.65, "deceleration": 66.93, "rotation_down": 41.44, "downward_expansion": 67.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.928, 3.907273, 4.177286, 4.483914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.96, "trend_reference": 4.939667, "distance_from_trend": -0.198326, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.764551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.313043, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.154207, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.349754, "excess_performance": -0.30655, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.198326, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141425, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.313043, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186664, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.311542, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056736, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.349754, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.601945, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107837846, "relative_activity": 1.205503, "balance": 0.601945, "dry_up": 1.324369, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08683, "annualized_volatility": 0.328313, "from_high_reference": -0.552036, "from_low_reference": 0.1 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.939667, "fair_value_reference": 5.764551, "structural_low": 3.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.019752, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.030135, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.345345, "worst_return": -0.200811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.105634, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.105922, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.179724, "worst_return": -0.280943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.186047, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.130655, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.198413, "worst_return": -0.381757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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4.550952, 4.879441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.98, "volume": 148095952, "typical_volume": 86092170.1, "trend": 5.208667, "fair_value": 5.855769, "relative_strength": -34.953274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.25826, "energy": 66.25082, "activity_lines": [ 3.894667, 4.050727, 4.464857, 4.795634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.79, "volume": 129158516, "typical_volume": 88178979.8, "trend": 5.135667, "fair_value": 5.831474, "relative_strength": -33.441525, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.975181, "energy": 67.037158, "activity_lines": [ 3.86, 3.962, 4.369619, 4.704108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.76, "volume": 114476261, "typical_volume": 87825055.2, "trend": 5.063667, "fair_value": 5.807179, "relative_strength": -34.007363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.571943, "energy": 64.351734, "activity_lines": [ 3.825333, 3.895091, 4.281333, 4.615355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.07, "volume": 122411255, "typical_volume": 87787820.0, "trend": 5.003667, "fair_value": 5.786282, "relative_strength": -28.119507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.26525, "energy": 52.113505, "activity_lines": [ 3.908667, 3.905818, 4.230857, 4.551247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.96, "volume": 107837846, "typical_volume": 89454646.25, "trend": 4.939667, "fair_value": 5.764551, "relative_strength": -31.154207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.390292, "energy": 46.735323, "activity_lines": [ 3.928, 3.907273, 4.177286, 4.483914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }