{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f610516c-b4fc-4242-9fc1-23bce3661cd9",
    "symbol": "VUKE",
    "name": "Vanguard FTSE 100 UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 80.835,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 79.867,
    "architecture_energy": 87.068,
    "architecture_maturity": 14.661,
    "architecture_confidence": 67.102,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 3.46,
        "rotation_up": 84.05,
        "upward_expansion": 98.1,
        "deceleration": 39.11,
        "rotation_down": 9.02,
        "downward_expansion": 20.1
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 55.330002,
    "trend_reference": 52.283557,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.058268,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 43.006836,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28654,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -5.138657,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.07308,
    "excess_performance": -0.097812,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.058268,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035419,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.28654,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.056619,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.051387,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.009743,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.07308,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.01271,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 69086,
      "relative_activity": 1.62223,
      "balance": 3.01271,
      "dry_up": 1.623545,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.01911,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.136126,
      "from_high_reference": -0.004498,
      "from_low_reference": 0.232083
    },
    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 43.006836,
      "structural_low": 48.584999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 48,
        "median_return": 0.012559,
        "positive_rate": 0.604167,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.604167,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003596,
        "regime_survival": 0.8125,
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        "worst_return": -0.079274,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "worst_return": -0.065014,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "worst_return": -0.027065,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 36105.65,
        "trend": 51.738375,
        "fair_value": 42.620108,
        "relative_strength": -4.496247,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 73.375969,
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          52.417656,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 54.529999,
        "volume": 48194,
        "typical_volume": 36941.7,
        "trend": 51.92725,
        "fair_value": 42.742594,
        "relative_strength": -3.221846,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 77.431186,
        "energy": 80.473835,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 55.139999,
        "volume": 120280,
        "typical_volume": 40637.45,
        "trend": 52.119265,
        "fair_value": 42.874164,
        "relative_strength": -2.744226,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.773408,
        "energy": 83.842262,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.418666,
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          52.576963
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 55.330002,
        "volume": 69086,
        "typical_volume": 42587.05,
        "trend": 52.283557,
        "fair_value": 43.006836,
        "relative_strength": -5.138657,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.866619,
        "energy": 87.067629,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}