{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6155559-7469-4a0f-b07d-cb66e8689bd2", "symbol": "AMSN", "name": "Amadeus IT Group, S.A.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -87.254, "architecture_energy": 95.488, "architecture_maturity": 50.677, "architecture_confidence": 78.451, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.76, "rotation_up": 8.0, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 88.9, "downward_expansion": 100.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 981.43999, 1003.800896, 1021.290704, 1029.061768 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 971.369995, "trend_reference": 1059.822246, "distance_from_trend": -0.08346, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1276.889149, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.239268, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.34342, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.24802, "excess_performance": -0.193353, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08346, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111798, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.239268, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027825, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243434, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088132, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.24802, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.170201, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.170201, "dry_up": 3.766899, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013131, "annualized_volatility": 0.387494, "from_high_reference": -0.376664, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1059.822246, "fair_value_reference": 1276.889149, "structural_low": 971.369995, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.002775, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.035647, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.132593, "worst_return": -0.218038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0485, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.019488, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.153825, "worst_return": -0.240939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.060868, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.084987, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.29027, "worst_return": -0.246125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.496799, "energy": 57.299232, "activity_lines": [ 1029.20096, 1039.831518, 1038.678241, 1050.818381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 971.369995, "volume": 1839, "typical_volume": 122.05, "trend": 1083.779163, "fair_value": 1279.729607, "relative_strength": -25.590464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.301897, "energy": 98.389153, "activity_lines": [ 1007.427992, 1026.902061, 1032.697967, 1042.793372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 971.369995, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 122.05, "trend": 1071.800704, "fair_value": 1278.261353, "relative_strength": -25.265012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.514945, "energy": 97.987128, "activity_lines": [ 991.509985, 1014.891853, 1026.902121, 1035.541168 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 971.369995, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 122.05, "trend": 1059.822246, "fair_value": 1276.889149, "relative_strength": -24.34342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.254042, "energy": 95.488276, "activity_lines": [ 981.43999, 1003.800896, 1021.290704, 1029.061768 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }