{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f61bfb40-466a-4ef7-bfeb-50a073d44d22", "symbol": "603959", "name": "Hunan Baili Engineering Sci&Tech Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.747, "architecture_energy": 40.932, "architecture_maturity": 48.095, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.42, "rotation_up": 25.85, "upward_expansion": 5.61, "deceleration": 49.14, "rotation_down": 45.19, "downward_expansion": 76.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.308667, 4.336545, 4.493095, 4.836172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.59, "trend_reference": 5.253333, "distance_from_trend": -0.126269, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.180833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.114042, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.821967, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.207254, "excess_performance": -0.16405, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.126269, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122397, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.114042, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035621, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054629, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207254, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.27083, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36589308, "relative_activity": 0.528294, "balance": 0.27083, "dry_up": 0.517424, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111781, "annualized_volatility": 0.640555, "from_high_reference": -0.45292, "from_low_reference": 0.240541 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.253333, "fair_value_reference": 5.180833, "structural_low": 3.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.001266, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.004394, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.150617, "worst_return": -0.642032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.051653, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.005744, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.579487, "worst_return": -0.466454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.260604, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.247125, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.110039, "worst_return": -0.508235, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082397, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.314381, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.224868, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086116, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": 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4.495333, 4.414, 4.801476, 5.128688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.31, "volume": 38433695, "typical_volume": 78073365.5, "trend": 5.419667, "fair_value": 5.317308, "relative_strength": -21.475446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.472125, "energy": 30.349474, "activity_lines": [ 4.470667, 4.389091, 4.713952, 5.053312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.04, "volume": 40899552, "typical_volume": 73709269.2, "trend": 5.364333, "fair_value": 5.269808, "relative_strength": -26.859188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.980092, "energy": 38.142544, "activity_lines": [ 4.328, 4.324727, 4.611381, 4.964301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.08, "volume": 27423112, "typical_volume": 70413265.1, "trend": 5.291667, "fair_value": 5.224487, "relative_strength": -26.105274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.683197, "energy": 53.012107, "activity_lines": [ 4.226, 4.279091, 4.523095, 4.881441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.59, "volume": 36589308, "typical_volume": 69259319.5, "trend": 5.253333, "fair_value": 5.180833, "relative_strength": -18.821967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.747096, "energy": 40.932416, "activity_lines": [ 4.308667, 4.336545, 4.493095, 4.836172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }