{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f61ff7e2-5561-4ce5-a460-337747182a71", "symbol": "ELO", "name": "Eloro Resources Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.725, "architecture_energy": 30.444, "architecture_maturity": 57.857, "architecture_confidence": 59.911, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.95, "rotation_up": 27.88, "upward_expansion": 18.13, "deceleration": 63.5, "rotation_down": 41.28, "downward_expansion": 68.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.767333, 1.744909, 1.852238, 1.953978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.03, "trend_reference": 2.167333, "distance_from_trend": -0.063365, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.556346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.304337, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.423803, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.242537, "excess_performance": -0.362959, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063365, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050664, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.304337, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019407, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194014, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.242537, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.602675, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 553200, "relative_activity": 0.834068, "balance": 1.602675, "dry_up": 0.833804, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106101, "annualized_volatility": 0.675875, "from_high_reference": -0.406433, "from_low_reference": 1.009901 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.167333, "fair_value_reference": 1.556346, "structural_low": 1.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.000584, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.021318, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.646259, "worst_return": -0.305785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.02439, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.019172, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.362903, "worst_return": -0.382353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041379, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.002493, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.475504, "worst_return": -0.478992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072581, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.347826, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097403, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.645503, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.319703, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102041, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15544, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.168103, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030457, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.12, "volume": 542600, "typical_volume": 356015.0, "trend": 3.418, "fair_value": 3.504744, "relative_strength": -8.57167, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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1.73, "volume": 42500, "typical_volume": 1015400.0, "trend": 2.332, "fair_value": 1.610833, "relative_strength": -18.790215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.799058, "energy": 76.138627, "activity_lines": [ 1.780667, 1.905273, 1.981286, 2.137376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.61, "volume": 823500, "typical_volume": 1011205.0, "trend": 2.314667, "fair_value": 1.597115, "relative_strength": -24.522825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.9575, "energy": 80.691484, "activity_lines": [ 1.708667, 1.836182, 1.93519, 2.090796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.63, "volume": 416100, "typical_volume": 834210.0, "trend": 2.287667, "fair_value": 1.584808, "relative_strength": -23.301136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.657187, "energy": 79.620176, "activity_lines": [ 1.664667, 1.778, 1.898143, 2.046624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.63, "volume": 801400, "typical_volume": 747875.0, "trend": 2.254, "fair_value": 1.575064, "relative_strength": -23.366591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.476982, "energy": 70.523708, "activity_lines": [ 1.643333, 1.730727, 1.866143, 2.004194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.65, "volume": 441400, "typical_volume": 701760.0, "trend": 2.204333, "fair_value": 1.565449, "relative_strength": -22.12581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.284337, "energy": 57.87363, "activity_lines": [ 1.640667, 1.699636, 1.839952, 1.965226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.03, "volume": 553200, "typical_volume": 663255.0, "trend": 2.167333, "fair_value": 1.556346, "relative_strength": -7.423803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.724989, "energy": 30.444032, "activity_lines": [ 1.767333, 1.744909, 1.852238, 1.953978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }