{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f625bfb3-01bf-45e3-ad1b-66bed78d17a1", "symbol": "FLO", "name": "Flowers Foods Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.137, "architecture_energy": 38.215, "architecture_maturity": 19.012, "architecture_confidence": 88.952, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.34, "rotation_up": 19.64, "upward_expansion": 9.61, "deceleration": 40.63, "rotation_down": 55.07, "downward_expansion": 75.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.574667, 7.816034, 7.866151, 8.081253 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.4, "trend_reference": 8.581142, "distance_from_trend": -0.137644, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.665296, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.527618, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.966596, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.354245, "excess_performance": -0.479869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137644, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090594, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.527618, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022946, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.339666, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035408, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.354245, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.913526, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26654315, "relative_activity": 0.80568, "balance": 0.913526, "dry_up": 0.746174, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117347, "annualized_volatility": 0.450164, "from_high_reference": -0.523239, "from_low_reference": 0.105697 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.581142, "fair_value_reference": 15.665296, "structural_low": 6.692609, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.005938, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014712, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.096879, "worst_return": -0.061041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.02445, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.095185, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.158129, "worst_return": -0.100161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019965, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.145965, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.096189, "worst_return": -0.197745, "sufficient": true }, { 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-30.371726, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.73378, "energy": 16.14223, "activity_lines": [ 8.194, 8.068344, 8.022574, 8.27766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.02, "volume": 31210467, "typical_volume": 33063377.8, "trend": 8.676853, "fair_value": 15.757249, "relative_strength": -36.367788, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.453764, "energy": 31.051917, "activity_lines": [ 7.789333, 7.90042, 7.922383, 8.16363 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.4, "volume": 26654315, "typical_volume": 33083016.1, "trend": 8.581142, "fair_value": 15.665296, "relative_strength": -33.966596, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.137095, "energy": 38.214973, "activity_lines": [ 7.574667, 7.816034, 7.866151, 8.081253 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }