{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f629dfdb-b67a-4b38-859d-dc2da99daf92", "symbol": "EVK", "name": "Evonik Industries AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.813, "architecture_energy": 88.57, "architecture_maturity": 19.763, "architecture_confidence": 80.146, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.48, "rotation_up": 82.56, "upward_expansion": 95.64, "deceleration": 41.92, "rotation_down": 9.05, "downward_expansion": 19.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.45, 16.933818, 16.585141, 16.12865 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.01, "trend_reference": 15.366458, "distance_from_trend": 0.172033, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.653972, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150507, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.689562, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.289602, "excess_performance": 0.224963, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.172033, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095346, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.150507, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103708, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.136896, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050531, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.289602, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.41935, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6199771, "relative_activity": 1.09206, "balance": 2.41935, "dry_up": 1.080833, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039142, "annualized_volatility": 0.313235, "from_high_reference": -0.011526, "from_low_reference": 0.533274 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.366458, "fair_value_reference": 15.653972, "structural_low": 12.583097, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.028105, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.026681, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.075742, "worst_return": -0.145874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.030807, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.055503, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.11211, "worst_return": -0.224204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.105645, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.123096, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.184114, "worst_return": -0.303777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.361702, "energy": 64.070336, "activity_lines": [ 16.689334, 16.395063, 16.250423, 15.783161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.54, "volume": 6686520, "typical_volume": 5735179.6, "trend": 15.181173, "fair_value": 15.634668, "relative_strength": 13.773996, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.020489, "energy": 78.409197, "activity_lines": [ 17.042667, 16.633433, 16.405009, 15.946145 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.01, "volume": 6199771, "typical_volume": 5677131.95, "trend": 15.366458, "fair_value": 15.653972, "relative_strength": 13.689562, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.812924, "energy": 88.569582, "activity_lines": [ 17.45, 16.933818, 16.585141, 16.12865 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }