{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f62a7b8e-8107-45d1-8b14-08ca7ac350df", "symbol": "OXY", "name": "Occidental Petroleum Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.136, "architecture_energy": 25.093, "architecture_maturity": 21.369, "architecture_confidence": 53.731, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.18, "rotation_up": 56.39, "upward_expansion": 54.28, "deceleration": 60.31, "rotation_down": 7.82, "downward_expansion": 20.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.156, 54.585672, 55.092614, 55.284108 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 55.91, "trend_reference": 54.047264, "distance_from_trend": 0.034465, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.516506, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.085283, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.4707, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.218732, "excess_performance": 0.093107, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034465, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088136, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.085283, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063539, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014707, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002958, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.218732, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.656926, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50219715, "relative_activity": 0.864118, "balance": 0.656926, "dry_up": 0.760182, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072502, "annualized_volatility": 0.422147, "from_high_reference": -0.167315, "from_low_reference": 0.454626 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.047264, "fair_value_reference": 51.516506, "structural_low": 44.439149, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.011104, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.004722, "regime_survival": 0.266667, "best_return": 0.207473, "worst_return": -0.092363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.02269, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.00928, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.301578, "worst_return": -0.144354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.016281, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.131698, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.547168, "worst_return": -0.064646, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": 4.103169, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.295556, "energy": 33.398565, "activity_lines": [ 52.292667, 53.303352, 54.975025, 54.569051 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.3, "volume": 40189026, "typical_volume": 65111616.25, "trend": 53.095942, "fair_value": 51.578803, "relative_strength": 9.13753, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.758309, "energy": 14.756918, "activity_lines": [ 54.161333, 53.795198, 55.076268, 54.878612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.07, "volume": 39081831, "typical_volume": 60340457.85, "trend": 53.598861, "fair_value": 51.558425, "relative_strength": 7.311071, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.008575, "energy": 25.878241, "activity_lines": [ 55.588, 54.282495, 55.138375, 55.135002 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.91, "volume": 50219715, "typical_volume": 58116756.4, "trend": 54.047264, "fair_value": 51.516506, "relative_strength": 1.4707, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.136154, "energy": 25.093428, "activity_lines": [ 56.156, 54.585672, 55.092614, 55.284108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }