{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6306799-57a9-409e-9b00-1a39fab6f48e", "symbol": "XQLT", "name": "iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.432, "architecture_energy": 68.667, "architecture_maturity": 86.215, "architecture_confidence": 76.757, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 57.56, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.51, "rotation_down": 28.7, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.531333, 50.296638, 49.277998, 48.170423 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 51.389999, "trend_reference": 46.968469, "distance_from_trend": 0.094138, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.838839, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.289947, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.030527, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.132268, "excess_performance": 0.011847, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094138, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038437, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.289947, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059289, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000305, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042143, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132268, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.693969, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70300, "relative_activity": 0.482101, "balance": 3.693969, "dry_up": 0.818989, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018632, "annualized_volatility": 0.115114, "from_high_reference": -0.012301, "from_low_reference": 0.23992 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.968469, "fair_value_reference": 39.838839, "structural_low": 42.34, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.015436, "positive_rate": 0.681818, "directional_follow_through": 0.681818, "median_excess_return": -0.005513, "regime_survival": 0.795455, "best_return": 0.067364, "worst_return": -0.066766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.027674, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.00876, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.152526, "worst_return": -0.08845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.079236, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.015258, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.184422, "worst_return": -0.151233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.800879, "energy": 91.488151, "activity_lines": [ 48.670364, 47.888921, 46.529735, 46.061067 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 49.763798, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 179545.0, "trend": 45.733134, "fair_value": 38.882236, "relative_strength": -0.098435, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.18279, "energy": 91.675698, "activity_lines": [ 49.134508, 48.350343, 46.909346, 46.333469 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 49.630001, "volume": 42400, "typical_volume": 170465.0, "trend": 45.884719, "fair_value": 39.019168, "relative_strength": -0.269496, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.96425, "energy": 89.132182, "activity_lines": [ 49.383578, 48.702278, 47.253422, 46.58488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 50.52, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 159480.0, "trend": 46.070618, "fair_value": 39.161178, "relative_strength": 0.838715, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.114985, "energy": 93.446021, "activity_lines": [ 49.843008, 49.154758, 47.662054, 46.88393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 50.779999, "volume": 127600, "typical_volume": 155565.0, "trend": 46.273485, "fair_value": 39.300649, "relative_strength": 1.294692, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.912447, "energy": 92.917649, "activity_lines": [ 50.252787, 49.575381, 48.068198, 47.187761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.869999, "volume": 169700, "typical_volume": 154250.0, "trend": 46.443695, "fair_value": 39.433094, "relative_strength": -0.283554, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.916587, "energy": 84.900948, "activity_lines": [ 50.203586, 49.74415, 48.362992, 47.419794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.900002, "volume": 92300, "typical_volume": 151155.0, "trend": 46.612248, "fair_value": 39.563032, "relative_strength": -0.38105, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.102508, "energy": 68.930793, "activity_lines": [ 50.132667, 49.863775, 48.640103, 47.642782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.200001, "volume": 145400, "typical_volume": 147840.0, "trend": 46.799318, "fair_value": 39.697153, "relative_strength": 0.744339, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.137249, "energy": 63.488445, "activity_lines": [ 50.152667, 49.988976, 48.917874, 47.87425 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.389999, "volume": 70300, "typical_volume": 145820.0, "trend": 46.968469, "fair_value": 39.838839, "relative_strength": -0.030527, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.432376, "energy": 68.666938, "activity_lines": [ 50.531333, 50.296638, 49.277998, 48.170423 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }