{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f63110d2-7e64-45ee-b270-352dc3a40424", "symbol": "600689", "name": "Shanghai Sanmao Enterprise (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.687, "architecture_energy": 62.129, "architecture_maturity": 77.797, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 24.39, "upward_expansion": 11.51, "deceleration": 59.55, "rotation_down": 58.04, "downward_expansion": 84.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.794, 9.951619, 10.834853, 11.510063 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.22, "trend_reference": 12.340201, "distance_from_trend": -0.171812, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.942784, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.066051, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.252057, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.250733, "excess_performance": -0.207529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.171812, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100227, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.066051, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.298942, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212521, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123088, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.250733, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.480379, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11675101, "relative_activity": 0.992155, "balance": 0.480379, "dry_up": 1.120907, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07954, "annualized_volatility": 0.308737, "from_high_reference": -0.386186, "from_low_reference": 0.177419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.340201, "fair_value_reference": 10.942784, "structural_low": 8.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.031176, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.018655, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.144131, "worst_return": -0.169123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.030216, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.063728, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.762611, "worst_return": -0.234107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.143421, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.000125, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.796736, "worst_return": -0.256071, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 13707721.55, "trend": 12.857534, "fair_value": 10.939535, "relative_strength": -26.077146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.787306, "energy": 89.989555, "activity_lines": [ 10.229131, 10.793327, 11.738396, 12.275577 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.53, "volume": 11099768, "typical_volume": 12557132.0, "trend": 12.720201, "fair_value": 10.940762, "relative_strength": -24.433062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.144198, "energy": 91.485542, "activity_lines": [ 9.938299, 10.456954, 11.463224, 12.060897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.12, "volume": 17011604, "typical_volume": 12151095.55, "trend": 12.570201, "fair_value": 10.936736, "relative_strength": -28.17816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.688032, "energy": 84.594716, "activity_lines": [ 9.613462, 10.115051, 11.174196, 11.828626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.86, "volume": 12974233, "typical_volume": 11811312.15, "trend": 12.447534, "fair_value": 10.93867, "relative_strength": -22.272499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.291855, "energy": 66.07839, "activity_lines": [ 9.64, 9.973274, 10.978786, 11.653775 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.22, "volume": 11675101, "typical_volume": 11767417.15, "trend": 12.340201, "fair_value": 10.942784, "relative_strength": -21.252057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.68715, "energy": 62.12855, "activity_lines": [ 9.794, 9.951619, 10.834853, 11.510063 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }