{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6331ff1-0923-4fb7-ac74-8cac2175d3d4", "symbol": "WUTI", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI World Utilities UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.067, "architecture_energy": 8.884, "architecture_maturity": 38.007, "architecture_confidence": 73.321, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.11, "rotation_up": 28.97, "upward_expansion": 62.28, "deceleration": 84.35, "rotation_down": 28.58, "downward_expansion": 16.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.078001, 62.377274, 62.02781, 61.911549 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 60.610001, "trend_reference": 61.383, "distance_from_trend": -0.012593, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.187725, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.184073, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.389523, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.046624, "excess_performance": -0.070038, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012593, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030124, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.184073, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040613, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083895, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086265, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046624, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.560042, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2709, "relative_activity": 0.569902, "balance": 0.560042, "dry_up": 0.693549, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023568, "annualized_volatility": 0.174476, "from_high_reference": -0.058412, "from_low_reference": 0.161334 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.383, "fair_value_reference": 51.187725, "structural_low": 57.689999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.000353, "positive_rate": 0.516129, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": 0.003621, "regime_survival": 0.709677, "best_return": 0.082197, "worst_return": -0.098763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.015839, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.003697, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.129774, "worst_return": -0.082924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.07018, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.021584, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.179499, "worst_return": 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"typical_volume": 5331.5, "trend": 60.824, "fair_value": 50.796539, "relative_strength": -2.932327, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.268556, "energy": 70.201263, "activity_lines": [ 63.066001, 62.336001, 62.000382, 61.707549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.190002, "volume": 3559, "typical_volume": 5302.3, "trend": 61.105667, "fair_value": 50.933013, "relative_strength": -1.447877, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.375785, "energy": 74.09918, "activity_lines": [ 63.509335, 62.777819, 62.209858, 61.92471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.560001, "volume": 1357, "typical_volume": 5042.1, "trend": 61.268334, "fair_value": 51.063878, "relative_strength": -6.109045, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.579545, "energy": 32.7751, "activity_lines": [ 62.887335, 62.664728, 62.159191, 61.954022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.610001, "volume": 2709, "typical_volume": 4753.45, "trend": 61.383, "fair_value": 51.187725, "relative_strength": -8.389523, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.06693, "energy": 8.8836, "activity_lines": [ 62.078001, 62.377274, 62.02781, 61.911549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }