{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f636949c-3950-4ee7-94e3-964f44425aa2", "symbol": "U1AI34", "name": "Under Armour, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 40.642, "architecture_energy": 75.734, "architecture_maturity": 16.749, "architecture_confidence": 65.246, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.12, "rotation_up": 76.12, "upward_expansion": 68.28, "deceleration": 20.87, "rotation_down": 16.05, "downward_expansion": 26.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.914001, 34.215637, 32.05681, 31.968559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 35.75, "trend_reference": 32.225667, "distance_from_trend": 0.109364, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.245128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.014325, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.494296, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.0602, "excess_performance": -0.003151, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.109364, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091212, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.014325, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121873, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.184943, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.287046, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0602, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.039912, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.039912, "dry_up": 0.030503, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056052, "annualized_volatility": 0.499993, "from_high_reference": -0.108923, "from_low_reference": 0.655093 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.225667, "fair_value_reference": 35.245128, "structural_low": 23.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.155063, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.085696, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.195726, "worst_return": -0.055342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.114547, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.127666, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.174074, "worst_return": 0.058633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.046216, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.024417, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136331, "worst_return": -0.309913, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.127273, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.091853, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028437, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.295895, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.313309, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.17696, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075433, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153483, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071225, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038979, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 35.240002, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 251.25, "trend": 40.366, "fair_value": 68.68, "relative_strength": -16.922061, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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"volume": 0, "typical_volume": 432.35, "trend": 30.544333, "fair_value": 35.222821, "relative_strength": 1.143082, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.382294, "energy": 23.745706, "activity_lines": [ 29.95, 29.076727, 29.687429, 30.53871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.84, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 430.5, "trend": 30.925666, "fair_value": 35.216603, "relative_strength": 6.844319, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.597197, "energy": 38.782504, "activity_lines": [ 31.45, 29.962727, 29.962286, 30.751333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.200001, "volume": 46, "typical_volume": 425.5, "trend": 31.371, "fair_value": 35.224295, "relative_strength": 20.898195, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.887405, "energy": 68.413005, "activity_lines": [ 33.63, 31.422546, 30.573333, 31.156129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.240002, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 425.55, "trend": 31.755667, "fair_value": 35.234872, "relative_strength": 18.255989, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.940941, "energy": 75.3723, "activity_lines": [ 34.934001, 32.60691, 31.097334, 31.470258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.75, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 415.05, "trend": 32.020667, "fair_value": 35.242115, "relative_strength": 14.970186, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.074732, "energy": 73.76233, "activity_lines": [ 35.638667, 33.505273, 31.583619, 31.727957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 409.8, "trend": 32.225667, "fair_value": 35.245128, "relative_strength": 18.494296, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.642157, "energy": 75.733927, "activity_lines": [ 35.914001, 34.215637, 32.05681, 31.968559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }