{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6462711-eff8-4ea4-823b-99142ea62df2", "symbol": "300092", "name": "Sichuan Kexin Mechanical and Electrical Equipment Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.587, "architecture_energy": 64.744, "architecture_maturity": 49.472, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 21.93, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 56.96, "rotation_down": 61.9, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.137333, 11.445818, 12.797388, 13.687765 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.41, "trend_reference": 14.720206, "distance_from_trend": -0.224875, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.804085, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.108878, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.507072, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.273158, "excess_performance": -0.280557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.224875, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097791, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.108878, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.402879, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.285071, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175074, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.273158, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.24957, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20891366, "relative_activity": 0.959186, "balance": 0.24957, "dry_up": 1.071511, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092901, "annualized_volatility": 0.382609, "from_high_reference": -0.462191, "from_low_reference": 0.126357 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.720206, "fair_value_reference": 12.804085, "structural_low": 10.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.044376, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": 0.003925, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.329966, "worst_return": -0.178679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058635, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.021963, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.328173, "worst_return": -0.119703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.069675, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051758, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.222105, "worst_return": -0.180356, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 12.870732, "relative_strength": -30.56167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.72063, "energy": 92.319824, "activity_lines": [ 11.491333, 12.258, 13.751459, 14.447189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.44, "volume": 25847955, "typical_volume": 29496661.65, "trend": 14.999781, "fair_value": 12.843535, "relative_strength": -32.929113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.367849, "energy": 91.188633, "activity_lines": [ 11.048, 11.771273, 13.341313, 14.142792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.4, "volume": 21727500, "typical_volume": 23279980.1, "trend": 14.863141, "fair_value": 12.824145, "relative_strength": -25.237103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.673848, "energy": 72.211476, "activity_lines": [ 11.082, 11.570182, 13.054451, 13.910548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.41, "volume": 20891366, "typical_volume": 21780308.1, "trend": 14.720206, "fair_value": 12.804085, "relative_strength": -28.507072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.586671, "energy": 64.744143, "activity_lines": [ 11.137333, 11.445818, 12.797388, 13.687765 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }