{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f64f4698-2b72-47a2-ad86-57a864788a2e", "symbol": "VITROA", "name": "Vitro, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.248, "architecture_energy": 31.325, "architecture_maturity": 68.866, "architecture_confidence": 95.521, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.54, "rotation_up": 18.79, "upward_expansion": 55.16, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 36.93, "downward_expansion": 21.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.929333, 5.110727, 5.037435, 4.771203 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.78, "trend_reference": 4.453459, "distance_from_trend": 0.073323, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.315572, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.243141, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.798495, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.221658, "excess_performance": 0.276325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073323, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117976, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.243141, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.219011, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.127985, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.248093, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.221658, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.166581, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 725, "relative_activity": 0.502756, "balance": 2.166581, "dry_up": 0.694497, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062914, "annualized_volatility": 0.651945, "from_high_reference": -0.218954, "from_low_reference": 0.349772 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.453459, "fair_value_reference": 6.315572, "structural_low": 3.541338, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.01148, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.003831, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.563459, "worst_return": -0.1127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.041313, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056217, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.591099, "worst_return": -0.129167, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.110221, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.10845, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.110024, "worst_return": -0.110417, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.295223, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005525, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.331325, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036458, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008547, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035714, 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4.273789, "fair_value": 6.544886, "relative_strength": 26.251052, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.36413, "energy": 64.534097, "activity_lines": [ 5.47, 5.40332, 4.835827, 4.561385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.24, "volume": 887, "typical_volume": 1411.25, "trend": 4.316484, "fair_value": 6.500298, "relative_strength": 26.095381, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.077815, "energy": 53.803001, "activity_lines": [ 5.346, 5.430573, 4.911221, 4.623722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.1, "volume": 1379, "typical_volume": 1465.4, "trend": 4.357165, "fair_value": 6.45562, "relative_strength": 22.031883, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.473464, "energy": 38.445321, "activity_lines": [ 5.234, 5.405827, 4.966014, 4.674271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.0, "volume": 1287, "typical_volume": 1513.5, "trend": 4.393629, "fair_value": 6.411151, "relative_strength": 19.662471, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.691417, "energy": 34.687368, "activity_lines": [ 5.128667, 5.337455, 5.005315, 4.715744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.9, "volume": 615, "typical_volume": 1432.55, "trend": 4.42676, "fair_value": 6.364766, "relative_strength": 15.956064, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.350634, "energy": 33.223508, "activity_lines": [ 5.036, 5.227273, 5.029597, 4.748413 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.78, "volume": 725, "typical_volume": 1442.05, "trend": 4.453459, "fair_value": 6.315572, "relative_strength": 12.798495, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.248314, "energy": 31.325215, "activity_lines": [ 4.929333, 5.110727, 5.037435, 4.771203 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }