{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f660c778-9209-4921-9b76-f82ebd1d09fd", "symbol": "C41", "name": "Cortina Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.774, "architecture_energy": 60.118, "architecture_maturity": 13.418, "architecture_confidence": 67.387, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.06, "rotation_up": 66.04, "upward_expansion": 81.44, "deceleration": 52.03, "rotation_down": 14.4, "downward_expansion": 12.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.721959, 3.668707, 3.603752, 3.571886 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.87, "trend_reference": 3.541597, "distance_from_trend": 0.092727, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.121735, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.239695, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.015092, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.115274, "excess_performance": -0.039561, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092727, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007853, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.239695, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.159796, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080151, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028901, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115274, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.181818, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7900, "relative_activity": 1.252974, "balance": 5.181818, "dry_up": 4.318002, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039834, "annualized_volatility": 0.213189, "from_high_reference": -0.015717, "from_low_reference": 0.172727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.541597, "fair_value_reference": 3.121735, "structural_low": 3.35, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.016938, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.052632, "worst_return": -0.076412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.06, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.05497, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.012658, "worst_return": -0.127559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.005764, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.041357, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.115274, "worst_return": -0.093334, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.104993, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0189, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22157, "worst_return": -0.011584, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109511, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006689, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.082734, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.137931, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094394, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020057, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023055, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", 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[ 3.622718, 3.574573, 3.537634, 3.528612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.529026, "volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 1325.0, "trend": 3.529839, "fair_value": 3.116714, "relative_strength": -14.430014, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.774461, "energy": 47.611934, "activity_lines": [ 3.59665, 3.575739, 3.538893, 3.528622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.500257, "volume": 7900, "typical_volume": 1595.0, "trend": 3.529848, "fair_value": 3.117206, "relative_strength": -15.266238, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.411368, "energy": 4.124602, "activity_lines": [ 3.56039, 3.568419, 3.537131, 3.526713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.74, "volume": 87300, "typical_volume": 5765.0, "trend": 3.529848, "fair_value": 3.118786, "relative_strength": -10.362415, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.564974, "energy": 31.722077, "activity_lines": [ 3.605361, 3.601956, 3.558247, 3.540272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.682462, "volume": 5800, "typical_volume": 5960.0, "trend": 3.532597, "fair_value": 3.118785, "relative_strength": -11.867355, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.67753, "energy": 31.806728, "activity_lines": [ 3.635152, 3.61976, 3.572599, 3.550118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.87, "volume": 7900, "typical_volume": 6305.0, "trend": 3.541597, "fair_value": 3.121735, "relative_strength": -8.015092, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.773585, "energy": 60.118391, "activity_lines": [ 3.721959, 3.668707, 3.603752, 3.571886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }