{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f66d9465-c34a-45b1-b027-2a2ab74f2f4c", "symbol": "THE", "name": "The Steel Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.312, "architecture_energy": 12.135, "architecture_maturity": 69.231, "architecture_confidence": 65.541, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.67, "rotation_up": 39.45, "upward_expansion": 58.77, "deceleration": 73.95, "rotation_down": 21.72, "downward_expansion": 17.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.784, 0.788, 0.782762, 0.779914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.79, "trend_reference": 0.772667, "distance_from_trend": 0.022433, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.922372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.143512, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.424712, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.024691, "excess_performance": -0.217016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022433, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026118, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.143512, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074326, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124247, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049726, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024691, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.506766, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 434900, "relative_activity": 1.027744, "balance": 4.506766, "dry_up": 0.899896, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127556, "annualized_volatility": 0.307107, "from_high_reference": -0.168421, "from_low_reference": 0.462963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.772667, "fair_value_reference": 0.922372, "structural_low": 0.54, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.027634, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": -0.048335, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.093333, "worst_return": -0.148148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.111899, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.06944, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.098592, "worst_return": -0.165217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.152721, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.19144, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.037037, "worst_return": -0.281286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.390041, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.274469, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.218543, "worst_return": -0.415254, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-03-24", "end": "2023-06-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.119205, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045113, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.151079, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008264, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.112903, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.161905, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.113636, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034884, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011905, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047059, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061728, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.140625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.025974, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.34, "volume": 105400, "typical_volume": 247410.0, "trend": 1.431621, "fair_value": 1.826945, "relative_strength": -5.277031, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.803697, "energy": 23.389511, "activity_lines": [ 0.801333, 0.795455, 0.784429, 0.780172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.75, "volume": 334700, "typical_volume": 405940.0, "trend": 0.771667, "fair_value": 0.925769, "relative_strength": -17.875697, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.52702, "energy": 10.48426, "activity_lines": [ 0.784, 0.788182, 0.781571, 0.778731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.79, "volume": 434900, "typical_volume": 423160.0, "trend": 0.772667, "fair_value": 0.922372, "relative_strength": -12.424712, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.312386, "energy": 12.135204, "activity_lines": [ 0.784, 0.788, 0.782762, 0.779914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }