{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f66dcf67-a2e7-4f6a-baba-e53520496041", "symbol": "002345", "name": "Guangdong Chj Industry Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.376, "architecture_energy": 13.601, "architecture_maturity": 12.769, "architecture_confidence": 65.966, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.0, "rotation_up": 39.31, "upward_expansion": 35.24, "deceleration": 38.33, "rotation_down": 15.9, "downward_expansion": 41.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.392667, 10.127273, 9.917398, 10.080336 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.59, "trend_reference": 10.554477, "distance_from_trend": 0.003366, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.202423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.291082, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.708216, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.141375, "excess_performance": -0.148775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003366, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068413, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.291082, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01399, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137082, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.213534, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.141375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.467706, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 147290100, "relative_activity": 1.760095, "balance": 0.467706, "dry_up": 1.547319, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089235, "annualized_volatility": 0.469223, "from_high_reference": -0.374532, "from_low_reference": 0.220046 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.554477, "fair_value_reference": 8.202423, "structural_low": 8.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.011442, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.013721, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.250522, "worst_return": -0.168508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.033379, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.009274, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.403846, "worst_return": -0.231667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.071423, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.022288, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.310891, "worst_return": -0.297784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.018291, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.183035, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.425663, "worst_return": -0.33153, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.150495, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171769, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.251984, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.05987, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003529, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090416, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.203045, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062853, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102308, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149335, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054369, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007569, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0498, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071862, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 6.174727, "volume": 48031870, "typical_volume": 66928060.2, "trend": 6.066893, "fair_value": 4.29195, "relative_strength": 22.710954, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", 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"fair_value": 8.101588, "relative_strength": -25.281136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.641007, "energy": 18.211096, "activity_lines": [ 9.835333, 9.620403, 9.753046, 10.183355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.84, "volume": 104604899, "typical_volume": 77156208.6, "trend": 10.725797, "fair_value": 8.120029, "relative_strength": -18.785026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.922776, "energy": 16.151708, "activity_lines": [ 9.87, 9.671877, 9.74458, 10.120408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.88, "volume": 127683519, "typical_volume": 77581523.8, "trend": 10.652044, "fair_value": 8.142134, "relative_strength": -18.035438, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.107512, "energy": 19.768634, "activity_lines": [ 9.912667, 9.735636, 9.747161, 10.065841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.89, "volume": 138358680, "typical_volume": 80707830.15, "trend": 10.603278, "fair_value": 8.173155, "relative_strength": -7.514535, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.253719, "energy": 14.986566, "activity_lines": [ 10.275333, 9.973818, 9.848845, 10.081193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.59, "volume": 147290100, "typical_volume": 83683017.85, "trend": 10.554477, "fair_value": 8.202423, "relative_strength": -13.708216, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.375593, "energy": 13.601386, "activity_lines": [ 10.392667, 10.127273, 9.917398, 10.080336 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }