{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f66e66fb-536e-4ad3-9063-b738592efa37", "symbol": "CIS", "name": "Cisco Systems, Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.005, "architecture_energy": 43.426, "architecture_maturity": 78.764, "architecture_confidence": 89.156, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.0, "rotation_up": 38.8, "upward_expansion": 66.72, "deceleration": 94.3, "rotation_down": 29.27, "downward_expansion": 16.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 101.332001, 101.146474, 98.254903, 91.859511 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 104.620003, "trend_reference": 83.447478, "distance_from_trend": 0.253723, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.605648, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.848226, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 31.262876, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.484345, "excess_performance": 0.419705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.253723, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.174362, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.848226, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.270841, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.312629, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024311, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.484345, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.364229, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33699, "relative_activity": 0.610264, "balance": 0.364229, "dry_up": 0.559956, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070014, "annualized_volatility": 0.403107, "from_high_reference": -0.058135, "from_low_reference": 0.898568 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 83.447478, "fair_value_reference": 56.605648, "structural_low": 61.567649, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.021127, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.019748, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.063117, "worst_return": -0.104157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046332, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.070422, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137058, "worst_return": -0.088559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.053624, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.02096, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.517856, "worst_return": -0.154172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.220807, "energy": 45.694, "activity_lines": [ 100.151544, 101.585644, 94.654588, 87.933902 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 99.400002, "volume": 20737, "typical_volume": 54664.5, "trend": 80.888774, "fair_value": 55.8699, "relative_strength": 33.276726, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.653548, "energy": 41.301379, "activity_lines": [ 99.777687, 101.078345, 95.835776, 89.201502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 99.53, "volume": 36762, "typical_volume": 54251.15, "trend": 82.062091, "fair_value": 56.224438, "relative_strength": 29.470952, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.186253, "energy": 39.565136, "activity_lines": [ 99.688001, 100.614682, 96.878248, 90.404162 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 104.620003, "volume": 33699, "typical_volume": 55220.4, "trend": 83.447478, "fair_value": 56.605648, "relative_strength": 31.262876, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.005452, "energy": 43.426443, "activity_lines": [ 101.332001, 101.146474, 98.254903, 91.859511 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }