{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f66fbb75-4852-4a9b-b660-e524185faf0a", "symbol": "COST", "name": "Costco Wholesale Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.289, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.371, "architecture_energy": 28.855, "architecture_maturity": 14.893, "architecture_confidence": 95.936, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.98, "rotation_up": 19.3, "upward_expansion": 3.01, "deceleration": 53.03, "rotation_down": 48.35, "downward_expansion": 76.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 819.682715, 822.691499, 834.555457, 839.735628 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 818.200012, "trend_reference": 841.831136, "distance_from_trend": -0.028071, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 769.946232, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.062672, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.605551, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.027163, "excess_performance": -0.20141, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028071, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026714, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.062672, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099679, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186056, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067213, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027163, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.076923, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.076923, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044409, "annualized_volatility": 0.219594, "from_high_reference": -0.132528, "from_low_reference": 0.138929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 841.831136, "fair_value_reference": 769.946232, "structural_low": 794.851074, "invalidation": "A 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"Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.538758, "energy": 35.470838, "activity_lines": [ 820.763867, 830.027141, 842.025777, 843.026304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 817.400024, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.4, "trend": 837.6416, "fair_value": 765.64814, "relative_strength": -17.368427, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.621069, "energy": 39.162029, "activity_lines": [ 818.458077, 825.621928, 839.006456, 841.927095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 826.400024, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.05, "trend": 840.926176, "fair_value": 767.851059, "relative_strength": -15.89238, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.809228, "energy": 31.739216, "activity_lines": [ 819.97146, 824.345806, 837.042441, 841.201832 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 818.200012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.05, "trend": 841.831136, "fair_value": 769.946232, "relative_strength": -18.605551, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.371077, "energy": 28.855065, "activity_lines": [ 819.682715, 822.691499, 834.555457, 839.735628 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }