{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6700327-45f0-410b-906f-4278e501e5ef", "symbol": "00923", "name": "Capital Tip Customized Taiwan ESG Low Carbon 50 ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.375, "architecture_energy": 26.818, "architecture_maturity": 73.302, "architecture_confidence": 92.036, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.65, "rotation_up": 25.71, "upward_expansion": 58.08, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 27.84, "downward_expansion": 21.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.508667, 41.032727, 40.133571, 37.887755 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 40.950001, "trend_reference": 34.739404, "distance_from_trend": 0.178777, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.215213, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.930219, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.663666, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.495675, "excess_performance": 0.116363, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.178777, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.202019, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.930219, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102067, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.056637, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018552, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.495675, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.837619, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63090241, "relative_activity": 2.663077, "balance": 1.837619, "dry_up": 1.461243, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062121, "annualized_volatility": 0.321612, "from_high_reference": -0.065495, "from_low_reference": 1.07083 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.739404, "fair_value_reference": 21.215213, "structural_low": 26.725262, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.2411, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.066439, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.2411, "worst_return": 0.2411, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.359871, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.079312, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.359871, "worst_return": 0.359871, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048594, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.044724, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081704, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091392, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.079764, "energy": 44.612346, "activity_lines": [ 40.789333, 41.284909, 39.46319, 37.015964 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.439999, "volume": 35577706, "typical_volume": 21501711.05, "trend": 34.208404, "fair_value": 21.039473, "relative_strength": 7.194877, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.661374, "energy": 31.497789, "activity_lines": [ 40.539333, 41.126727, 39.801809, 37.452814 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.950001, "volume": 63090241, "typical_volume": 23690730.4, "trend": 34.739404, "fair_value": 21.215213, "relative_strength": 5.663666, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.375111, "energy": 26.817624, "activity_lines": [ 40.508667, 41.032727, 40.133571, 37.887755 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }