{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f670368c-6872-4810-9160-6c1a3eac5d8d", "symbol": "CLOX", "name": "ELDRIDGE AAA CLO ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.371, "architecture_energy": 46.089, "architecture_maturity": 51.088, "architecture_confidence": 60.684, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.05, "rotation_up": 49.28, "upward_expansion": 77.09, "deceleration": 65.3, "rotation_down": 24.81, "downward_expansion": 6.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.502669, 25.491577, 25.453241, 25.396968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.54, "trend_reference": 25.316848, "distance_from_trend": 0.008814, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.740754, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.075787, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.366695, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.015356, "excess_performance": -0.110268, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008814, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007329, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.075787, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002333, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093667, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00118, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015356, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.026283, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1704533, "relative_activity": 2.052958, "balance": 2.026283, "dry_up": 1.168297, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003704, "annualized_volatility": 0.013997, "from_high_reference": -0.000704, "from_low_reference": 0.043199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.316848, "fair_value_reference": 23.740754, "structural_low": 25.046817, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.003338, "positive_rate": 0.842105, "directional_follow_through": 0.842105, "median_excess_return": -0.0101, "regime_survival": 0.947368, "best_return": 0.009238, "worst_return": -0.003337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012891, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.034203, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.015975, "worst_return": 0.002667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.024058, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.059635, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.028351, "worst_return": 0.015455, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"up", "direction": 62.66514, "energy": 40.764915, "activity_lines": [ 25.480391, 25.478486, 25.438881, 25.381489 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.54, "volume": 1704533, "typical_volume": 830281.6, "trend": 25.316848, "fair_value": 23.740754, "relative_strength": -9.366695, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.371426, "energy": 46.088716, "activity_lines": [ 25.502669, 25.491577, 25.453241, 25.396968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }