{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f676158b-d49a-4c99-83a3-1fccb689f8e3", "symbol": "FOOD", "name": "Betashares Global Agriculture Companies Currency Hedged ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.076, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.913, "architecture_energy": 27.801, "architecture_maturity": 61.366, "architecture_confidence": 64.354, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.15, "rotation_up": 39.03, "upward_expansion": 21.52, "deceleration": 44.04, "rotation_down": 21.81, "downward_expansion": 55.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.012667, 7.931989, 7.985463, 8.089008 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.92, "trend_reference": 8.161339, "distance_from_trend": -0.029571, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.887682, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.149879, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.515625, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.02583, "excess_performance": -0.089536, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029571, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030328, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.149879, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041809, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109594, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02583, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.666363, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 131477, "relative_activity": 0.907757, "balance": 0.666363, "dry_up": 0.654117, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025846, "annualized_volatility": 0.170422, "from_high_reference": -0.112108, "from_low_reference": 0.175177 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.161339, "fair_value_reference": 6.887682, "structural_low": 7.606491, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.019231, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": -0.003119, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.093178, "worst_return": -0.090331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.01132, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.018535, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.166389, "worst_return": -0.042253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014102, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.02707, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.189684, "worst_return": -0.04507, "sufficient": true }, 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8.100158 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.18, "volume": 80186, "typical_volume": 153963.8, "trend": 8.115672, "fair_value": 6.873767, "relative_strength": 6.727779, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.483302, "energy": 22.192053, "activity_lines": [ 7.972836, 7.89327, 8.015703, 8.106364 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.07, "volume": 95645, "typical_volume": 147013.55, "trend": 8.143339, "fair_value": 6.881144, "relative_strength": 2.661921, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.786868, "energy": 26.999428, "activity_lines": [ 8.03, 7.927074, 8.006321, 8.103417 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.92, "volume": 131477, "typical_volume": 144837.15, "trend": 8.161339, "fair_value": 6.887682, "relative_strength": -2.515625, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.912572, "energy": 27.801328, "activity_lines": [ 8.012667, 7.931989, 7.985463, 8.089008 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }