{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f67649b8-f113-4d1c-98c9-3084a1b9247a", "symbol": "WDHE", "name": "Invesco Markets II plc - Invesco S&P World Health Care ESG UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.143, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.785, "architecture_energy": 61.168, "architecture_maturity": 15.975, "architecture_confidence": 53.735, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.82, "rotation_up": 75.32, "upward_expansion": 85.63, "deceleration": 53.13, "rotation_down": 10.76, "downward_expansion": 9.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.766133, 5.700582, 5.556105, 5.520469 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.79, "trend_reference": 5.515933, "distance_from_trend": 0.049686, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.367023, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07881, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.859749, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.021705, "excess_performance": -0.149187, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049686, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003475, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07881, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095548, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088597, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039454, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021705, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.726838, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2146, "relative_activity": 0.193126, "balance": 0.726838, "dry_up": 1.012406, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024352, "annualized_volatility": 0.145411, "from_high_reference": -0.059003, "from_low_reference": 0.226435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.515933, "fair_value_reference": 5.367023, "structural_low": 5.16, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014326, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.036349, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.072475, "worst_return": -0.121034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.023463, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066084, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.120257, "worst_return": -0.167183, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.037472, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.107347, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.061835, "worst_return": -0.136779, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.019983, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.229556, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.019983, "worst_return": -0.019983, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015594, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060195, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033592, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056291, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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5.806, "volume": 10270, "typical_volume": 11004.8, "trend": 5.515567, "fair_value": 5.361346, "relative_strength": -5.98936, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.539226, "energy": 70.579497, "activity_lines": [ 5.7488, 5.6612, 5.522914, 5.502763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.79, "volume": 2146, "typical_volume": 11111.9, "trend": 5.515933, "fair_value": 5.367023, "relative_strength": -8.859749, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.784661, "energy": 61.167514, "activity_lines": [ 5.766133, 5.700582, 5.556105, 5.520469 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }