{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f679407c-7e70-4690-a279-1f23aa180384", "symbol": "E50EUA", "name": "UBS Core EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF EUR dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.714, "architecture_energy": 84.722, "architecture_maturity": 28.858, "architecture_confidence": 85.592, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 70.78, "upward_expansion": 91.57, "deceleration": 47.84, "rotation_down": 18.16, "downward_expansion": 18.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.670666, 60.005091, 58.462905, 57.261895 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 62.330002, "trend_reference": 56.116439, "distance_from_trend": 0.110726, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.051657, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.297146, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.116455, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.130759, "excess_performance": 0.047876, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110726, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036992, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.297146, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109174, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031165, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013328, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130759, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.264485, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40506, "relative_activity": 1.375537, "balance": 2.264485, "dry_up": 1.178075, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023115, "annualized_volatility": 0.172338, "from_high_reference": -0.009062, "from_low_reference": 0.266355 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.116439, "fair_value_reference": 48.051657, "structural_low": 49.220001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.006917, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": 0.007026, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.113916, "worst_return": -0.054368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002164, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.013155, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.132581, "worst_return": -0.105314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.064594, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.004895, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.179224, "worst_return": 0.013305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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59.138001, 57.959819, 56.391572, 55.77265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 59.099998, "volume": 31274, "typical_volume": 28962.5, "trend": 55.318038, "fair_value": 47.517492, "relative_strength": -0.08006, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.90347, "energy": 83.708513, "activity_lines": [ 59.286667, 58.344182, 56.750476, 56.028043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.889999, "volume": 27809, "typical_volume": 28582.2, "trend": 55.487014, "fair_value": 47.640602, "relative_strength": -1.162665, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.61972, "energy": 75.565774, "activity_lines": [ 59.214666, 58.607818, 57.074714, 56.258492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.709999, "volume": 29221, "typical_volume": 28315.2, "trend": 55.692597, "fair_value": 47.765657, "relative_strength": 0.326061, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.325072, "energy": 71.435003, "activity_lines": [ 59.367999, 58.953818, 57.462095, 56.530943 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.599998, "volume": 41229, "typical_volume": 28608.3, "trend": 55.907643, "fair_value": 47.903158, "relative_strength": 1.669204, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.47076, "energy": 63.722087, "activity_lines": [ 59.802665, 59.363272, 57.90019, 56.84755 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.330002, "volume": 40506, "typical_volume": 29447.4, "trend": 56.116439, "fair_value": 48.051657, "relative_strength": 3.116455, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.713641, "energy": 84.722483, "activity_lines": [ 60.670666, 60.005091, 58.462905, 57.261895 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }