{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f681c37d-607a-49f0-94fd-9b6c6856a322", "symbol": "ZACE", "name": "BMO U.S. All Cap Equity Fund ETF Series", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.123, "architecture_energy": 73.189, "architecture_maturity": 69.302, "architecture_confidence": 73.213, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.34, "rotation_up": 60.85, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 67.73, "rotation_down": 28.8, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.667333, 62.294545, 61.136619, 59.589978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 63.959999, "trend_reference": 57.865, "distance_from_trend": 0.105331, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.335668, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.351201, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.138168, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.173578, "excess_performance": 0.053157, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.105331, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036283, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.351201, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04884, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001382, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036315, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.173578, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.862857, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2100, "relative_activity": 0.604317, "balance": 0.862857, "dry_up": 1.330935, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016176, "annualized_volatility": 0.112138, "from_high_reference": -0.00234, "from_low_reference": 0.240496 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.865, "fair_value_reference": 47.335668, "structural_low": 51.560001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.012988, "positive_rate": 0.735294, "directional_follow_through": 0.735294, "median_excess_return": 0.000895, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.087572, "worst_return": -0.070784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.073157, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.027576, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.149281, "worst_return": -0.073268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.105819, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.049247, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.194827, "worst_return": -0.044867, "sufficient": true }, { 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-1.074247, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.781075, "energy": 81.263023, "activity_lines": [ 61.368667, 60.677454, 58.568238, 57.535183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 62.009998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2845.0, "trend": 56.767667, "fair_value": 46.396067, "relative_strength": -0.378003, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.668892, "energy": 73.006423, "activity_lines": [ 61.602666, 61.065272, 59.048095, 57.88557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 62.439999, "volume": 3700, "typical_volume": 2835.0, "trend": 56.987667, "fair_value": 46.586353, "relative_strength": 0.261442, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.854372, "energy": 79.929306, "activity_lines": [ 61.907999, 61.442727, 59.533761, 58.251527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 62.130001, "volume": 1900, "typical_volume": 2805.0, "trend": 57.204333, "fair_value": 46.771326, "relative_strength": -0.000792, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.586556, "energy": 79.300029, "activity_lines": [ 62.054666, 61.672909, 59.956238, 58.58329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 62.09, "volume": 10300, "typical_volume": 3290.0, "trend": 57.417667, "fair_value": 46.954955, "relative_strength": -0.231962, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.38841, "energy": 69.629344, "activity_lines": [ 62.099333, 61.829454, 60.340143, 58.898494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.810001, "volume": 4200, "typical_volume": 3405.0, "trend": 57.634333, "fair_value": 47.137749, "relative_strength": -0.167716, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.390945, "energy": 64.388045, "activity_lines": [ 62.046, 61.884, 60.656809, 59.181871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.959999, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 3475.0, "trend": 57.865, "fair_value": 47.335668, "relative_strength": 0.138168, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.123173, "energy": 73.18904, "activity_lines": [ 62.667333, 62.294545, 61.136619, 59.589978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }