{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f688fd2c-0e09-4be7-94d4-e6a933552739", "symbol": "8092", "name": "Chien Wei Precise Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.394, "architecture_energy": 47.036, "architecture_maturity": 13.201, "architecture_confidence": 66.456, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.88, "rotation_up": 20.41, "upward_expansion": 16.72, "deceleration": 46.14, "rotation_down": 62.89, "downward_expansion": 58.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.226667, 13.597273, 14.540952, 14.559247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.5, "trend_reference": 14.535, "distance_from_trend": -0.140007, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.283974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.316341, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.783325, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.125874, "excess_performance": -0.567246, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140007, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019782, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.316341, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189269, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.407833, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051474, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125874, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.754511, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 385000, "relative_activity": 0.507721, "balance": 0.754511, "dry_up": 0.361105, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130769, "annualized_volatility": 0.620865, "from_high_reference": -0.403341, "from_low_reference": 0.077586 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.535, "fair_value_reference": 18.283974, "structural_low": 11.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.043062, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.015917, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.055556, "worst_return": -0.118943, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.139634, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.118495, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151515, "worst_return": 0.127753, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.874783, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.813602, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.537445, "worst_return": 0.212121, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.707594, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.518894, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.268722, "worst_return": 0.146465, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.255, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082031, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.803509, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040462, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011385, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138728, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.12069, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020253, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112195, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.095541, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039773, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.22191, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105442, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-14", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 12.7, "volume": 1414000, "typical_volume": 2041150.0, "trend": 12.131667, "fair_value": 10.466282, "relative_strength": -4.204989, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after 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"trend": 14.66, "fair_value": 18.277564, "relative_strength": -35.14996, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.801015, "energy": 28.985028, "activity_lines": [ 13.906667, 14.421818, 15.007381, 14.83172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.0, "volume": 260048, "typical_volume": 761145.35, "trend": 14.636667, "fair_value": 18.288462, "relative_strength": -31.979365, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.100279, "energy": 26.428662, "activity_lines": [ 13.913333, 14.209091, 14.928333, 14.78914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.15, "volume": 294098, "typical_volume": 751442.6, "trend": 14.576667, "fair_value": 18.28718, "relative_strength": -36.480611, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.462336, "energy": 34.417198, "activity_lines": [ 13.626667, 13.92, 14.765, 14.693226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 12.5, "volume": 385000, "typical_volume": 758290.9, "trend": 14.535, "fair_value": 18.283974, "relative_strength": -40.783325, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.39422, "energy": 47.036006, "activity_lines": [ 13.226667, 13.597273, 14.540952, 14.559247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }