{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f69175d8-b3ef-44b4-bd3d-980cf032eb3e", "symbol": "002159", "name": "Wuhan Sante Cableway Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.37, "architecture_energy": 54.58, "architecture_maturity": 65.675, "architecture_confidence": 94.566, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 9.81, "deceleration": 60.41, "rotation_down": 50.78, "downward_expansion": 83.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.901333, 12.977408, 13.869024, 14.880213 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.13, "trend_reference": 15.835346, "distance_from_trend": -0.170842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.978364, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.123402, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.258678, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.195466, "excess_performance": -0.202865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046299, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.123402, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162304, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192587, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004728, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.195466, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.399323, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14546300, "relative_activity": 0.84064, "balance": 0.399323, "dry_up": 0.905859, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08384, "annualized_volatility": 0.390841, "from_high_reference": -0.392692, "from_low_reference": 0.084228 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.835346, "fair_value_reference": 14.978364, "structural_low": 12.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.040729, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.054941, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.276134, "worst_return": -0.156878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.09981, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.144557, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.257426, "worst_return": -0.045807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.22363, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.208834, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.434543, "worst_return": 0.107793, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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15.366652, 15.945593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.64, "volume": 16740681, "typical_volume": 21782063.3, "trend": 16.188346, "fair_value": 15.089699, "relative_strength": -28.423877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.195274, "energy": 87.296931, "activity_lines": [ 13.044667, 13.650759, 14.99227, 15.710216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.66, "volume": 14019382, "typical_volume": 20514428.1, "trend": 16.108679, "fair_value": 15.058046, "relative_strength": -20.627136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.504807, "energy": 85.3939, "activity_lines": [ 12.838667, 13.366684, 14.645268, 15.482581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.25, "volume": 15920433, "typical_volume": 19143055.05, "trend": 15.989346, "fair_value": 15.024633, "relative_strength": -22.907466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.192288, "energy": 78.438411, "activity_lines": [ 12.572667, 13.065578, 14.293123, 15.233634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.29, "volume": 18213234, "typical_volume": 18241287.15, "trend": 15.908679, "fair_value": 14.999686, "relative_strength": -14.548404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.715132, "energy": 61.84269, "activity_lines": [ 12.794667, 13.015325, 14.071978, 15.059482 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.13, "volume": 14546300, "typical_volume": 17303847.05, "trend": 15.835346, "fair_value": 14.978364, "relative_strength": -19.258678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.369774, "energy": 54.579676, "activity_lines": [ 12.901333, 12.977408, 13.869024, 14.880213 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }