{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f694797c-3c80-47bc-a43d-28dc282bb49d", "symbol": "EFORL", "name": "E for L Aim Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.796, "architecture_energy": 52.441, "architecture_maturity": 70.165, "architecture_confidence": 94.397, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.1, "rotation_up": 13.56, "upward_expansion": 9.9, "deceleration": 39.75, "rotation_down": 58.76, "downward_expansion": 80.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.120667, 0.124909, 0.128048, 0.130387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.11, "trend_reference": 0.133667, "distance_from_trend": -0.177057, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.182308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.396624, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.654771, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.153846, "excess_performance": -0.346171, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177057, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056471, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.396624, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091145, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.356548, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08399, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.153846, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.160995, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14321700, "relative_activity": 1.587357, "balance": 0.160995, "dry_up": 1.205115, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146853, "annualized_volatility": 0.332796, "from_high_reference": -0.45, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.133667, "fair_value_reference": 0.182308, "structural_low": 0.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.205128, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.063728, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.4375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.152882, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.21244, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.452941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.245614, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.366014, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.571429, "worst_return": -0.647059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 22.796622, "activity_lines": [ 0.13, 0.130909, 0.131952, 0.133935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.13, "volume": 20008900, "typical_volume": 11627980.0, "trend": 0.136667, "fair_value": 0.183013, "relative_strength": -26.906172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.189563, "energy": 20.80889, "activity_lines": [ 0.13, 0.130727, 0.131571, 0.133462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.13, "volume": 6089800, "typical_volume": 10003820.0, "trend": 0.136, "fair_value": 0.182821, "relative_strength": -26.646263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.30423, "energy": 19.36624, "activity_lines": [ 0.13, 0.130545, 0.131286, 0.133032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.12, "volume": 3071500, "typical_volume": 8883980.0, "trend": 0.135, "fair_value": 0.182628, "relative_strength": -30.917086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.679677, "energy": 31.042451, "activity_lines": [ 0.126667, 0.128545, 0.130095, 0.132 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.11, "volume": 14321700, "typical_volume": 9022355.0, "trend": 0.133667, "fair_value": 0.182308, "relative_strength": -35.654771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.796027, "energy": 52.440657, "activity_lines": [ 0.120667, 0.124909, 0.128048, 0.130387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }