{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f69806d5-629d-4bc7-acf8-fe9a278f136d", "symbol": "601766", "name": "CRRC Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.9, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.044, "architecture_energy": 25.499, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 54.553, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.34, "rotation_up": 44.55, "upward_expansion": 27.19, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 19.1, "downward_expansion": 49.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.910667, 5.744909, 5.758905, 5.869978 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.88, "trend_reference": 6.055, "distance_from_trend": -0.028902, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.568493, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104818, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.64763, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.068146, "excess_performance": -0.024942, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028902, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07951, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104818, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002716, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106476, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119722, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.068146, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.070268, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 883167953, "relative_activity": 1.155312, "balance": 2.070268, "dry_up": 1.375294, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05089, "annualized_volatility": 0.196005, "from_high_reference": -0.275006, "from_low_reference": 0.128599 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.055, "fair_value_reference": 6.568493, "structural_low": 5.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.003869, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.004759, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.159292, "worst_return": -0.113718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.028033, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.034416, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.301344, "worst_return": -0.168874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.054738, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.03159, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.160959, "worst_return": -0.145575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-17", "close": 5.65, "volume": 821317479, "typical_volume": 724425657.9, "trend": 6.142, "fair_value": 6.567784, "relative_strength": -11.531119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.312043, "energy": 56.349835, "activity_lines": [ 5.491333, 5.550545, 5.727619, 5.893161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.94, "volume": 1421285013, "typical_volume": 743410835.1, "trend": 6.111, "fair_value": 6.567408, "relative_strength": -7.701711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.036817, "energy": 28.576749, "activity_lines": [ 5.649333, 5.607636, 5.731381, 5.880129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.16, "volume": 1079555042, "typical_volume": 757030476.6, "trend": 6.086333, "fair_value": 6.568326, "relative_strength": -4.283527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.987836, "energy": 17.873836, "activity_lines": [ 5.858, 5.705273, 5.757857, 5.88329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.88, "volume": 883167953, "typical_volume": 764441079.4, "trend": 6.055, "fair_value": 6.568493, "relative_strength": -10.64763, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.044232, "energy": 25.498948, "activity_lines": [ 5.910667, 5.744909, 5.758905, 5.869978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }