{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f69a728b-6592-43ab-846c-9d0ce9d0ae13", "symbol": "SCA-A", "name": "Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 54.486, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 19.37, "architecture_energy": 33.906, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 50.496, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.82, "rotation_up": 53.24, "upward_expansion": 37.79, "deceleration": 43.19, "rotation_down": 19.39, "downward_expansion": 48.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 106.853334, 104.223636, 103.108571, 104.476467 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 110.5, "trend_reference": 107.017106, "distance_from_trend": 0.032545, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 128.78893, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.142007, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.341135, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.025545, "excess_performance": -0.087039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032545, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045885, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.142007, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081449, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133411, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088668, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025545, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.487064, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45950, "relative_activity": 0.692785, "balance": 7.487064, "dry_up": 0.800261, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034946, "annualized_volatility": 0.201387, "from_high_reference": -0.152079, "from_low_reference": 0.146266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107.017106, "fair_value_reference": 128.78893, "structural_low": 96.400002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.003011, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": -0.009315, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.117166, "worst_return": -0.088424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.003849, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035781, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.191977, "worst_return": -0.109453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.020498, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.082863, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.103448, "worst_return": -0.1346, "sufficient": 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108.523882, "fair_value": 129.330448, "relative_strength": -20.76336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.231083, "energy": 48.59784, "activity_lines": [ 99.953334, 100.189091, 102.120712, 104.85814 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 102.5, "volume": 68092, "typical_volume": 70232.8, "trend": 108.030988, "fair_value": 129.185491, "relative_strength": -17.27793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.471077, "energy": 36.850586, "activity_lines": [ 100.72, 100.596364, 101.913349, 104.469502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 104.5, "volume": 45829, "typical_volume": 66982.45, "trend": 107.624212, "fair_value": 129.021035, "relative_strength": -16.39612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.027456, "energy": 22.813823, "activity_lines": [ 102.02, 101.358182, 101.977064, 104.241696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 108.0, "volume": 52443, "typical_volume": 67028.55, "trend": 107.236849, "fair_value": 128.887393, "relative_strength": -14.265864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.929949, "energy": 16.079604, "activity_lines": [ 104.286667, 102.641818, 102.418331, 104.265941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 110.5, "volume": 45950, "typical_volume": 66326.5, "trend": 107.017106, "fair_value": 128.78893, "relative_strength": -13.341135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 19.37015, "energy": 33.90628, "activity_lines": [ 106.853334, 104.223636, 103.108571, 104.476467 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }