{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f69c0ffc-581a-4151-99b8-83b6c240c706", "symbol": "MEQT", "name": "MACKENZIE ALL EQUITY ALLOCATION", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.692, "architecture_energy": 56.458, "architecture_maturity": 91.242, "architecture_confidence": 56.113, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.51, "rotation_up": 48.09, "upward_expansion": 75.99, "deceleration": 71.43, "rotation_down": 29.28, "downward_expansion": 13.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.253335, 34.202026, 33.735157, 33.077978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 34.880001, "trend_reference": 32.308485, "distance_from_trend": 0.079593, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.189644, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.331824, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.097827, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.145339, "excess_performance": 0.024918, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079593, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043165, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.331824, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040905, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000978, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000116, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145339, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.208111, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30700, "relative_activity": 1.764875, "balance": 1.208111, "dry_up": 1.376832, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019372, "annualized_volatility": 0.137602, "from_high_reference": -0.008809, "from_low_reference": 0.274141 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.308485, "fair_value_reference": 26.189644, "structural_low": 29.440001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.023302, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.000898, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.097871, "worst_return": -0.067823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057311, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.006691, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.111687, "worst_return": 0.012772, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.138271, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.006429, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.170185, "worst_return": 0.106357, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 63.635747, "activity_lines": [ 34.198, 34.016049, 33.27425, 32.65998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.900002, "volume": 21600, "typical_volume": 16410.0, "trend": 32.066345, "fair_value": 26.072496, "relative_strength": -0.260013, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.66722, "energy": 59.488459, "activity_lines": [ 34.084668, 34.036347, 33.413667, 32.785863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.900002, "volume": 31700, "typical_volume": 16630.0, "trend": 32.185868, "fair_value": 26.12801, "relative_strength": 0.224721, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.133091, "energy": 46.499781, "activity_lines": [ 34.006002, 34.034963, 33.536532, 32.904163 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.880001, "volume": 30700, "typical_volume": 17395.0, "trend": 32.308485, "fair_value": 26.189644, "relative_strength": -0.097827, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.692025, "energy": 56.457654, "activity_lines": [ 34.253335, 34.202026, 33.735157, 33.077978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }