{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f69e6cb9-783f-46f5-be76-2cf65c6aaba3", "symbol": "SR", "name": "Siamraj Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.1, "architecture_energy": 40.11, "architecture_maturity": 15.736, "architecture_confidence": 78.01, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.12, "rotation_up": 55.53, "upward_expansion": 80.01, "deceleration": 51.43, "rotation_down": 17.93, "downward_expansion": 9.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.366667, 0.356182, 0.337905, 0.329763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.37, "trend_reference": 0.322667, "distance_from_trend": 0.146694, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.540705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.315708, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.83046, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.275862, "excess_performance": 0.083537, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.146694, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053763, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.315708, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.188495, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138305, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.197385, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.275862, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.553545, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77400, "relative_activity": 0.118279, "balance": 4.553545, "dry_up": 0.63403, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.170478, "annualized_volatility": 0.744101, "from_high_reference": -0.27451, "from_low_reference": 0.48 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.322667, "fair_value_reference": 0.540705, "structural_low": 0.27, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.014706, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.014327, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.133333, "worst_return": -0.174419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.100671, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.046439, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.174603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.199889, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.083254, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.183333, "worst_return": -0.261745, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.315656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.31, "volume": 468400, "typical_volume": 155395.0, "trend": 0.324667, "fair_value": 0.570513, "relative_strength": -30.8522, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.446739, "energy": 8.250719, "activity_lines": [ 0.319333, 0.316364, 0.312381, 0.314495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.39, "volume": 9058600, "typical_volume": 593180.0, "trend": 0.325, "fair_value": 0.564038, "relative_strength": -12.641096, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.138954, "energy": 36.068086, "activity_lines": [ 0.343333, 0.330364, 0.319905, 0.31871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.38, "volume": 1116100, "typical_volume": 645175.0, "trend": 0.325, "fair_value": 0.558397, "relative_strength": -15.149496, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.181419, "energy": 41.948229, "activity_lines": [ 0.359333, 0.340909, 0.326048, 0.322258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.38, "volume": 218200, "typical_volume": 650525.0, "trend": 0.325, "fair_value": 0.552692, "relative_strength": -14.656654, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.754935, "energy": 57.957002, "activity_lines": [ 0.368667, 0.350182, 0.331857, 0.325806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.34, "volume": 247900, "typical_volume": 652320.0, "trend": 0.323667, "fair_value": 0.54641, "relative_strength": -22.027764, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.036966, "energy": 51.631214, "activity_lines": [ 0.363333, 0.350727, 0.333524, 0.326774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.37, "volume": 77400, "typical_volume": 654385.0, "trend": 0.322667, "fair_value": 0.540705, "relative_strength": -13.83046, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.100088, "energy": 40.109547, "activity_lines": [ 0.366667, 0.356182, 0.337905, 0.329763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }