{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6a0c97a-1e0e-4f43-bb18-677b12f2de45", "symbol": "NUS", "name": "Nu Skin Enterprises Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.203, "architecture_energy": 47.097, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 61.607, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.19, "rotation_up": 27.71, "upward_expansion": 20.17, "deceleration": 66.7, "rotation_down": 40.44, "downward_expansion": 67.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.277333, 5.233636, 5.598936, 6.113389 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.49, "trend_reference": 7.051382, "distance_from_trend": -0.221429, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.164219, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.45987, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.357373, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.483243, "excess_performance": -0.608868, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.221429, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175762, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.45987, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047064, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.433574, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119642, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.483243, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.753831, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2786633, "relative_activity": 0.949091, "balance": 0.753831, "dry_up": 0.906096, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090377, "annualized_volatility": 0.50189, "from_high_reference": -0.615593, "from_low_reference": 0.122699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.051382, "fair_value_reference": 10.164219, "structural_low": 4.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.028698, "positive_rate": 0.351351, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": -0.0634, "regime_survival": 0.918919, "best_return": 0.271802, "worst_return": -0.289256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.175812, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.248053, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.22354, "worst_return": -0.326592, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.105772, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.206175, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.199748, "worst_return": -0.472742, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.667768, "energy": 62.737226, "activity_lines": [ 5.182, 5.284102, 5.884648, 6.519987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.08, "volume": 2432844, "typical_volume": 2996112.5, "trend": 7.35123, "fair_value": 10.392128, "relative_strength": -46.199882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.32864, "energy": 61.817883, "activity_lines": [ 5.156667, 5.219803, 5.76203, 6.363584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.19, "volume": 2111559, "typical_volume": 2982255.7, "trend": 7.206789, "fair_value": 10.274187, "relative_strength": -45.13424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.11698, "energy": 55.057737, "activity_lines": [ 5.164, 5.193273, 5.661658, 6.224149 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.49, "volume": 2786633, "typical_volume": 2936107.25, "trend": 7.051382, "fair_value": 10.164219, "relative_strength": -43.357373, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.202884, "energy": 47.097042, "activity_lines": [ 5.277333, 5.233636, 5.598936, 6.113389 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }