{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6a6c52a-9335-4309-8c79-1a17e074c417", "symbol": "ESGC", "name": "Invesco S&P/TSX Composite ESG Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.785, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.771, "architecture_energy": 73.263, "architecture_maturity": 48.222, "architecture_confidence": 82.954, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.26, "rotation_up": 64.96, "upward_expansion": 88.41, "deceleration": 52.69, "rotation_down": 26.36, "downward_expansion": 12.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.426667, 42.231906, 41.625833, 41.006415 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 42.919998, "trend_reference": 40.252758, "distance_from_trend": 0.066262, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.247884, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.418942, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.235268, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.114187, "excess_performance": -0.006234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066262, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046092, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.418942, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020841, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002353, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003525, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114187, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.058824, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3600, "relative_activity": 0.649234, "balance": 1.058824, "dry_up": 0.87917, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012942, "annualized_volatility": 0.139458, "from_high_reference": -0.002093, "from_low_reference": 0.35244 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.252758, "fair_value_reference": 30.247884, "structural_low": 36.859924, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.012435, "positive_rate": 0.638889, "directional_follow_through": 0.638889, "median_excess_return": 0.001514, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.092091, "worst_return": -0.098855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.026268, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.006076, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.130633, "worst_return": -0.148043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.076446, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007887, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.220529, "worst_return": -0.147512, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.013022, "energy": 78.518067, "activity_lines": [ 42.132267, 41.930572, 41.243597, 40.674118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.240002, "volume": 4900, "typical_volume": 5695.0, "trend": 40.090882, "fair_value": 30.120168, "relative_strength": 1.931393, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.166352, "energy": 65.30158, "activity_lines": [ 42.180001, 42.031345, 41.411662, 40.823891 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.919998, "volume": 3600, "typical_volume": 5545.0, "trend": 40.252758, "fair_value": 30.247884, "relative_strength": 0.235268, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.771206, "energy": 73.262822, "activity_lines": [ 42.426667, 42.231906, 41.625833, 41.006415 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }