{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6ab2bcf-3f69-4a98-82f5-83dbc40acad5", "symbol": "CBUS5E", "name": "UBS BBG US Liquid Corp 1-5 UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.003, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.504, "architecture_energy": 47.201, "architecture_maturity": 2.122, "architecture_confidence": 87.413, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.67, "rotation_up": 15.15, "upward_expansion": 11.77, "deceleration": 37.14, "rotation_down": 59.58, "downward_expansion": 82.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.244667, 15.260036, 15.26881, 15.278925 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.274, "trend_reference": 15.297333, "distance_from_trend": -0.001525, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.732846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036731, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.529351, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.005987, "excess_performance": -0.176879, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001525, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000666, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036731, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010918, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145294, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027598, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005987, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.944788, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10084, "relative_activity": 0.590713, "balance": 2.944788, "dry_up": 0.530728, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004039, "annualized_volatility": 0.023688, "from_high_reference": -0.01152, "from_low_reference": 0.010586 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.297333, "fair_value_reference": 14.732846, "structural_low": 15.15, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.004921, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.006302, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.016024, "worst_return": -0.02464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008424, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028878, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.041026, "worst_return": -0.045985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.004287, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.069701, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.042198, "worst_return": -0.064636, "sufficient": false }, { 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-14.383844, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.18753, "energy": 15.85154, "activity_lines": [ 15.289867, 15.281855, 15.282324, 15.294619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.274, "volume": 9658, "typical_volume": 20384.7, "trend": 15.305867, "fair_value": 14.705756, "relative_strength": -12.728278, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.366953, "energy": 10.632358, "activity_lines": [ 15.284, 15.281273, 15.280886, 15.292465 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.208, "volume": 4388, "typical_volume": 20094.8, "trend": 15.302867, "fair_value": 14.714564, "relative_strength": -12.591935, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.91134, "energy": 40.567538, "activity_lines": [ 15.257867, 15.269309, 15.273943, 15.286151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.216, "volume": 12110, "typical_volume": 18293.25, "trend": 15.299133, "fair_value": 14.723436, "relative_strength": -12.73266, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.944023, "energy": 56.372152, "activity_lines": [ 15.238533, 15.259164, 15.268514, 15.280546 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.274, "volume": 10084, "typical_volume": 17070.9, "trend": 15.297333, "fair_value": 14.732846, "relative_strength": -14.529351, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.504346, "energy": 47.201041, "activity_lines": [ 15.244667, 15.260036, 15.26881, 15.278925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }