{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6ac8a2e-d64b-49c8-a29c-5110a4f0000e", "symbol": "HYFM", "name": "Hydrofarm Holdings Group\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.231, "architecture_energy": 5.05, "architecture_maturity": 52.0, "architecture_confidence": 53.985, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.61, "rotation_up": 27.79, "upward_expansion": 18.66, "deceleration": 44.07, "rotation_down": 30.27, "downward_expansion": 61.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.95302, 0.878005, 0.904672, 0.960133 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.6, "trend_reference": 1.079435, "distance_from_trend": 0.482257, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.302566, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.698259, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.230123, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.103448, "excess_performance": -0.084005, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.482257, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228564, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.698259, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132053, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.441602, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103448, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 59.84754, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 156179861, "relative_activity": 19.482186, "balance": 59.84754, "dry_up": 4.890559, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.211172, "annualized_volatility": 1.725715, "from_high_reference": -0.665272, "from_low_reference": 2.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.079435, "fair_value_reference": 5.302566, "structural_low": 0.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.069124, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.039298, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.069124, "worst_return": 0.069124, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.489631, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.626692, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.489631, "worst_return": -0.489631, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.658986, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.784474, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.658986, "worst_return": -0.658986, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.875576, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -1.122282, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.875576, "worst_return": -0.875576, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.032222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.177112, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.20101, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.133504, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.48048, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.061404, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019973, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.267218, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007903, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.286638, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.26412, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.756757, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.4, "volume": 1132823, "typical_volume": 2218408.05, "trend": 13.754867, "fair_value": 240.789688, "relative_strength": -46.507594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.981718, "energy": 58.558277, "activity_lines": [ 0.816853, 0.870367, 0.934694, 1.030214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.6818, "volume": 126973, "typical_volume": 224489.4, "trend": 1.157905, "fair_value": 5.499388, "relative_strength": -69.625928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.259192, "energy": 70.157719, "activity_lines": [ 0.764273, 0.828325, 0.905174, 0.997092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6559, "volume": 107447, "typical_volume": 218163.55, "trend": 1.123102, "fair_value": 5.432438, "relative_strength": -68.976355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.912925, "energy": 71.643296, "activity_lines": [ 0.719113, 0.787905, 0.876368, 0.964705 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.54, "volume": 407321, "typical_volume": 215867.15, "trend": 1.087768, "fair_value": 5.357695, "relative_strength": -73.427086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.545229, "energy": 81.767498, "activity_lines": [ 0.651, 0.732669, 0.838496, 0.927085 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.6, "volume": 156179861, "typical_volume": 8016547.1, "trend": 1.079435, "fair_value": 5.302566, "relative_strength": -22.230123, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.230861, "energy": 5.05047, "activity_lines": [ 0.95302, 0.878005, 0.904672, 0.960133 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }