{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6afcb75-4d56-4253-943e-d715e381f350", "symbol": "000727", "name": "TPV Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.209, "architecture_energy": 70.235, "architecture_maturity": 17.586, "architecture_confidence": 85.97, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.44, "rotation_up": 9.7, "upward_expansion": 15.89, "deceleration": 37.43, "rotation_down": 71.04, "downward_expansion": 89.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.217333, 2.337091, 2.505571, 2.560473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.23, "trend_reference": 2.607667, "distance_from_trend": -0.144829, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.528782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.118153, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.781184, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.12549, "excess_performance": -0.13289, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144829, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02298, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.118153, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.29374, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177812, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097468, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.12549, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.746262, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 334826906, "relative_activity": 0.614579, "balance": 0.746262, "dry_up": 0.630933, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124526, "annualized_volatility": 0.43688, "from_high_reference": -0.298742, "from_low_reference": 0.051887 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.607667, "fair_value_reference": 2.528782, "structural_low": 2.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.014534, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.016728, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.120192, "worst_return": -0.066964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016775, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003585, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.64433, "worst_return": -0.133929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.075898, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.078643, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.424107, "worst_return": -0.045455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.345992, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067376, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.121324, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053279, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008197, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", 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-29.496663, "energy": 38.452571, "activity_lines": [ 2.516667, 2.632545, 2.677619, 2.673075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.2, "volume": 334184430, "typical_volume": 606150267.25, "trend": 2.646, "fair_value": 2.528269, "relative_strength": -16.836179, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.006459, "energy": 67.216349, "activity_lines": [ 2.396, 2.54, 2.63081, 2.643333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.14, "volume": 343281632, "typical_volume": 580536739.7, "trend": 2.630333, "fair_value": 2.528333, "relative_strength": -18.981375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.152216, "energy": 75.204322, "activity_lines": [ 2.278667, 2.449818, 2.580429, 2.610688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.24, "volume": 362652793, "typical_volume": 560283149.8, "trend": 2.618, "fair_value": 2.52891, "relative_strength": -13.508729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.434858, "energy": 71.913556, "activity_lines": [ 2.235333, 2.388545, 2.542238, 2.585505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.23, "volume": 334826906, "typical_volume": 544806898.1, "trend": 2.607667, "fair_value": 2.528782, "relative_strength": -17.781184, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.209063, "energy": 70.235138, "activity_lines": [ 2.217333, 2.337091, 2.505571, 2.560473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }