{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6c02883-1ad6-4a1c-8d05-4a8c29ef9c57", "symbol": "600026", "name": "COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.488, "architecture_energy": 44.684, "architecture_maturity": 17.287, "architecture_confidence": 72.97, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.86, "rotation_up": 19.84, "upward_expansion": 6.14, "deceleration": 49.05, "rotation_down": 56.02, "downward_expansion": 79.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.427927, 16.645285, 18.186117, 19.080749 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.700001, "trend_reference": 19.189446, "distance_from_trend": -0.077618, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.779345, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284531, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.374429, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.120253, "excess_performance": 0.163457, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077618, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090599, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284531, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.480418, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.113744, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.420514, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120253, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.113282, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 301061593, "relative_activity": 0.961479, "balance": 1.113282, "dry_up": 1.056924, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133236, "annualized_volatility": 0.676237, "from_high_reference": -0.348546, "from_low_reference": 0.764706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.189446, "fair_value_reference": 13.779345, "structural_low": 14.06, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046457, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.074759, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.252282, "worst_return": -0.002038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.057261, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.019906, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.325197, "worst_return": -0.094429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.165145, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.130396, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.229134, "worst_return": -0.122152, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017497, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.218607, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026877, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": 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"close": 14.21, "volume": 335025942, "typical_volume": 381628095.05, "trend": 18.686113, "fair_value": 13.713505, "relative_strength": -4.398782, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.58644, "energy": 67.766497, "activity_lines": [ 16.068258, 17.207469, 19.227594, 19.491868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.55, "volume": 380811374, "typical_volume": 349752139.4, "trend": 18.817446, "fair_value": 13.729538, "relative_strength": 2.628729, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.605931, "energy": 65.793282, "activity_lines": [ 15.600358, 16.697225, 18.731196, 19.289538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.870001, "volume": 306890787, "typical_volume": 327634876.2, "trend": 18.98878, "fair_value": 13.750279, "relative_strength": 10.009682, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.782364, "energy": 57.99258, "activity_lines": [ 15.789732, 16.541891, 18.406657, 19.163896 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.700001, "volume": 301061593, "typical_volume": 313123268.95, "trend": 19.189446, "fair_value": 13.779345, "relative_strength": 11.374429, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.487539, "energy": 44.683767, "activity_lines": [ 16.427927, 16.645285, 18.186117, 19.080749 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }