{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6c33ef6-50bd-4b0f-b15f-dd783d8b0b7a", "symbol": "MLGEQ", "name": "Gentlemen's Equity S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.682, "architecture_energy": 49.948, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.882, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.68, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 27.0, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 38.98, "downward_expansion": 65.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.260533, 0.256145, 0.25927, 0.287935 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.252, "trend_reference": 0.331943, "distance_from_trend": -0.240834, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.357489, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.295083, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.521218, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.452174, "excess_performance": -0.505485, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.240834, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213423, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.295083, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013214, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.355212, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083636, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.452174, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.214349, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.214349, "dry_up": 0.486546, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040293, "annualized_volatility": 0.967208, "from_high_reference": -0.634783, "from_low_reference": 11.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.331943, "fair_value_reference": 0.357489, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.029869, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.040369, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 7.0, "worst_return": -0.875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.604167, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.572856, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 4.6, "worst_return": -0.8125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.8, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.727644, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 4.0, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.025, 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"end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.454545, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.565217, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.275362, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.184466, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.61, "volume": 927, "typical_volume": 5540.45, "trend": 0.377, "fair_value": 1.8975, "relative_strength": -25.766797, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.662723, "energy": 52.654185, "activity_lines": [ 0.535333, 0.519455, 0.474095, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.741392, "energy": 87.142027, "activity_lines": [ 0.246, 0.249491, 0.27219, 0.309597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.25, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 2323.85, "trend": 0.349543, "fair_value": 0.361643, "relative_strength": -33.275485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.349116, "energy": 86.538794, "activity_lines": [ 0.247333, 0.248691, 0.266493, 0.302638 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.298, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 1551.95, "trend": 0.34281, "fair_value": 0.360476, "relative_strength": -20.820676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.927087, "energy": 49.437291, "activity_lines": [ 0.2644, 0.256982, 0.265891, 0.299312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.252, "volume": 563, "typical_volume": 1573.85, "trend": 0.337543, "fair_value": 0.359784, "relative_strength": -34.024548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.930576, "energy": 49.028924, "activity_lines": [ 0.262667, 0.2564, 0.262014, 0.293454 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.252, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1573.85, "trend": 0.331943, "fair_value": 0.357489, "relative_strength": -35.521218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.681971, "energy": 49.948202, "activity_lines": [ 0.260533, 0.256145, 0.25927, 0.287935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }