{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6cbd3e0-ff41-4743-b583-ca176b6d212b", "symbol": "KILO-B", "name": "Purpose Gold Bullion Non-FX Hedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.741, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.691, "architecture_energy": 51.435, "architecture_maturity": 44.131, "architecture_confidence": 91.653, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.95, "rotation_up": 26.07, "upward_expansion": 8.29, "deceleration": 59.82, "rotation_down": 52.22, "downward_expansion": 81.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.768666, 68.834182, 70.653952, 72.578452 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 71.599998, "trend_reference": 75.039333, "distance_from_trend": -0.045834, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.463942, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.391265, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.310641, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.107788, "excess_performance": -0.228209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045834, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004425, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.391265, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198417, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103106, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124484, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.107788, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.479951, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29100, "relative_activity": 0.793672, "balance": 0.479951, "dry_up": 0.709805, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035002, "annualized_volatility": 0.240536, "from_high_reference": -0.194419, "from_low_reference": 0.310875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.039333, "fair_value_reference": 51.463942, "structural_low": 65.900002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004367, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024872, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.106283, "worst_return": -0.048582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.089572, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.017054, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.120279, "worst_return": 0.026346, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.167644, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.047031, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.185495, "worst_return": 0.149793, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.29618, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.132436, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.430147, "worst_return": 0.162213, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051136, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000617, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001228, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000615, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012662, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.145865, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033755, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.388366, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00476, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.350109, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044747, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078291, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016757, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 30.549999, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 4135.0, "trend": 31.163333, "fair_value": 28.600236, "relative_strength": 2.798875, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", 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83.552197, "activity_lines": [ 69.340666, 70.447818, 72.727095, 74.412968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 66.470001, "volume": 32000, "typical_volume": 43410.0, "trend": 75.412666, "fair_value": 50.734711, "relative_strength": -14.269109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.792037, "energy": 84.745567, "activity_lines": [ 68.358667, 69.498182, 71.919905, 73.826064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 67.660004, "volume": 11100, "typical_volume": 40575.0, "trend": 75.248666, "fair_value": 50.96984, "relative_strength": -12.944993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.919149, "energy": 65.548479, "activity_lines": [ 67.990001, 68.949274, 71.31581, 73.325893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.199997, "volume": 31900, "typical_volume": 40480.0, "trend": 75.136666, "fair_value": 51.201955, "relative_strength": -13.087517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.315195, "energy": 66.215782, "activity_lines": [ 67.606, 68.433091, 70.740953, 72.806624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.599998, "volume": 29100, "typical_volume": 36665.0, "trend": 75.039333, "fair_value": 51.463942, "relative_strength": -10.310641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.690596, "energy": 51.435319, "activity_lines": [ 68.768666, 68.834182, 70.653952, 72.578452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }