{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6d2f169-da2e-4ad8-ac51-3d191d55c6c3", "symbol": "NANEXA", "name": "Nanexa AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.817, "architecture_energy": 29.336, "architecture_maturity": 17.124, "architecture_confidence": 71.033, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.71, "rotation_up": 51.09, "upward_expansion": 70.68, "deceleration": 62.18, "rotation_down": 18.22, "downward_expansion": 6.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.002, 3.907182, 3.884833, 3.861151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.16, "trend_reference": 3.819833, "distance_from_trend": 0.089053, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.046199, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.033038, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.220889, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.113788, "excess_performance": 0.052294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089053, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117836, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.033038, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.236854, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.162209, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025777, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113788, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.138038, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1055806, "relative_activity": 0.557142, "balance": 1.138038, "dry_up": 0.639588, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096246, "annualized_volatility": 0.444862, "from_high_reference": -0.168, "from_low_reference": 1.971429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.819833, "fair_value_reference": 2.046199, "structural_low": 3.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.04758, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.041682, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.583503, "worst_return": -0.228487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.389892, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.301632, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.967033, "worst_return": -0.713904, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.216606, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.086187, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.076923, "worst_return": -0.635015, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.373121, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.305766, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.302198, "worst_return": -0.555957, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.209677, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12844, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.153285, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.459649, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081545, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004494, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.159551, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049689, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.120958, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.376432, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.073292, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.204927, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124324, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.37, "volume": 265721, "typical_volume": 177038.6, "trend": 3.654833, "fair_value": 5.306626, "relative_strength": 11.40413, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.7, "volume": 1933458, "typical_volume": 2211360.8, "trend": 3.815833, "fair_value": 2.038667, "relative_strength": 10.666704, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.482314, "energy": 15.567739, "activity_lines": [ 3.731, 3.868091, 3.835548, 3.826366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.69, "volume": 1141541, "typical_volume": 2141226.75, "trend": 3.825667, "fair_value": 2.038603, "relative_strength": 10.835741, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.196489, "energy": 21.429811, "activity_lines": [ 3.675333, 3.834455, 3.82181, 3.818247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.67, "volume": 869639, "typical_volume": 2042880.9, "trend": 3.807833, "fair_value": 2.0395, "relative_strength": 7.845029, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.09552, "energy": 22.446623, "activity_lines": [ 3.664667, 3.795636, 3.807571, 3.808204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.285, "volume": 1781198, "typical_volume": 2013388.15, "trend": 3.8165, "fair_value": 2.042929, "relative_strength": 22.960831, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.580857, "energy": 20.983311, "activity_lines": [ 3.875, 3.868909, 3.853214, 3.838989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.16, "volume": 1055806, "typical_volume": 1895040.85, "trend": 3.819833, "fair_value": 2.046199, "relative_strength": 16.220889, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.817463, "energy": 29.336171, "activity_lines": [ 4.002, 3.907182, 3.884833, 3.861151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }