{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6d52ebe-06be-4bae-94b0-dbdaaaec56a4", "symbol": "XKID", "name": "Reksa Dana KISI IDX30 ETF", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.787, "architecture_energy": 43.603, "architecture_maturity": 39.863, "architecture_confidence": 57.886, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.74, "rotation_up": 27.38, "upward_expansion": 19.35, "deceleration": 66.94, "rotation_down": 33.87, "downward_expansion": 62.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 800.0, 798.236364, 817.095238, 844.273118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 800.0, "trend_reference": 887.2, "distance_from_trend": -0.098287, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 939.008556, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.148038, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.229862, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.181167, "excess_performance": 0.01109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098287, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071416, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.148038, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087258, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012299, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036224, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181167, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.029613, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.029613, "dry_up": 0.16441, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035481, "annualized_volatility": 0.230018, "from_high_reference": -0.229287, "from_low_reference": 0.176471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 887.2, "fair_value_reference": 939.008556, "structural_low": 680.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.000989, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.133261, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": 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2595.0, "trend": 894.133333, "fair_value": 940.186594, "relative_strength": 4.04941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.579168, "energy": 45.224791, "activity_lines": [ 799.6, 798.018182, 821.533333, 850.346237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 800.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2585.0, "trend": 887.2, "fair_value": 939.008556, "relative_strength": 1.229862, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.787449, "energy": 43.602648, "activity_lines": [ 800.0, 798.236364, 817.095238, 844.273118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }