{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6da2384-8d46-40e0-8e6c-d41937dd9845", "symbol": "GBFH", "name": "GBank Financial Holdings Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.081, "architecture_energy": 75.643, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.87, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.41, "rotation_up": 16.28, "upward_expansion": 22.62, "deceleration": 28.81, "rotation_down": 71.17, "downward_expansion": 84.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.822667, 27.363273, 28.446619, 28.707183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.88, "trend_reference": 29.4965, "distance_from_trend": -0.292119, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.139792, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.23065, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.735075, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.39688, "excess_performance": -0.584334, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.292119, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061124, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.23065, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.361122, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.447351, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13073, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.39688, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.563601, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 872450, "relative_activity": 2.438982, "balance": 1.563601, "dry_up": 1.631954, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161767, "annualized_volatility": 0.67517, "from_high_reference": -0.505565, "from_low_reference": 0.063678 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.4965, "fair_value_reference": 27.139792, "structural_low": 19.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.022817, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": 0.026929, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.087602, "worst_return": -0.218025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.025303, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.009303, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.289474, "worst_return": -0.114043, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.05521, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030316, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.225, "worst_return": -0.11458, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.23, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.037502, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.23, "worst_return": 0.23, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-01-06", "end": "2023-01-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095373, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-05-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2023-06-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061475, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035294, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077236, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.22566, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.050159, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.949942, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.181127, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.158383, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.016685, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.108518, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040545, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002882, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.3, "volume": 5559, "typical_volume": 17463.4, "trend": 12.347667, "fair_value": 10.685115, "relative_strength": -6.119973, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.110649, "energy": 12.745016, "activity_lines": [ 30.776667, 30.378, 29.669381, 29.841312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.74, "volume": 279938, "typical_volume": 325086.9, "trend": 30.3925, "fair_value": 26.914151, "relative_strength": -18.503515, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.911181, "energy": 12.426621, "activity_lines": [ 30.719333, 30.534364, 29.828476, 29.852677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.0, "volume": 310748, "typical_volume": 322797.65, "trend": 30.226167, "fair_value": 27.031522, "relative_strength": -15.617167, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.17652, "energy": 16.185859, "activity_lines": [ 30.853333, 30.709273, 30.00981, 29.891871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.82, "volume": 871933, "typical_volume": 338156.45, "trend": 29.8365, "fair_value": 27.085561, "relative_strength": -42.87934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.917042, "energy": 43.349132, "activity_lines": [ 27.498667, 28.954545, 29.212333, 29.285022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.88, "volume": 872450, "typical_volume": 357710.7, "trend": 29.4965, "fair_value": 27.139792, "relative_strength": -44.735075, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.081304, "energy": 75.642765, "activity_lines": [ 24.822667, 27.363273, 28.446619, 28.707183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }